基于全球年平均SST(Sea Surface Temperature, 海表面温度)的观测研究显示，地中海年代际变率的潜在可预报性高于PDV(Pacific Decadal Variability，太平洋年代际变率)且与AMV(Atlantic Multidecadal Variability，大西洋年代际变率)相当，但其形成机制还有争议，其不同季节的年代际可预报性也不明确。本项目将揭示地中海冬、夏年代际变率的空间分布和关键区，明确NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation，北大西洋涛动)和AMV以及地中海海洋强迫对其形成的影响；并用年代际变率强度和APT（Average Predictability Time，平均可预报时间）方法来分析其年代际局地可预报性和平均可预报时间。研究结果可以为年代际变率的理论研究进行外延拓展，并为其预测提供物理基础和指导性建议。

Study based on observed global annual mean SST shows that the potential decadal predictability in Mediterranean Sea (MS) is higher than that of PDV and comparable with that of AMV. However the driving mechanism of MS decadal variability is still in debate, and the predictability of MS decadal variability in different seasons is not clear. This project will reveal the spatial distributions and key regions of MS decadal variability separately in winter and summer, make clear the role of NAO, AMV and MS oceanic forcings play in MS decadal variability, and explore local decadal predictability in MS by calculating the ratio between decadal variability and total variability at each grid and the average decadal predictability time in the whole MS by using the APT method. This study could extend the existing theories of decadal/multidecadal climate variability, provide physical basis and guidance advices for decadal predictions.