CO2减排对能源利用和经济结构改善提出了新的挑战，有效减排途径下能源消费、经济发展之间的内在演化机理是可持续发展框架下的基础问题。本项目从非平衡统计力学思想出发，定义碳排放相关约束下能源-经济-环境（简称3E）系统的广义信息熵泛函，建立3E系统的演化模型描述各组元之间的相互作用规则，以揭示其有序结构形成的动力学机理；并以中国、美国为例，通过重构求解获得3E系统结构演化的动力学过程和量化结果，以及不同经济发展水平和能源结构下CO2排放规律及其决定因素；再以LEAP软件为工具，构建不同减排情景下的LEAPChina模型，预测我国工业、交通运输业和居民生活部门在2005-2030年间的能源需求、能源消费、CO2排放情况等；根据预测结果，利用已构建的动力学方程再进行数值模拟，得到上述三个部门碳排放与经济增长、能源消费之间的内在联系，为切实可行减排策略的制定提供新思路和基础理论依据。

CO2 emissions reduction challenges a reasonable energy use and economic structure. Under sustainable development framework, it is a basic problem to explore the evolutionary mechanism between energy consumption, economic development and emissions reduction. This project, from a perspective of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, will build up non-equilibrium dynamic equations by using maximum generalized entropy variational principle, to illustrate the dynamic mechnism for a whole systemetic structure emerged from the non-linear interaction among energy-economy-environment (3E) subsystems. Then, taking China and the U.S. as examples, a reconstructing method of 3E system is proposed to obtain solutions to the structural evolution equations. Next, the LEAPChina model will be set up on the basis of LEAP software to forcast the energy demand, consumption and CO2 emissions and so on in industrial, transportation, and residential sectors of China during 2005-2030. Finally, the structural evolution equations mentioned above will be applied to simulate the dynamic process of carbon emissions, economic growth and energy consumption in three sectors with the forcasting results，which will provide a new theoretical and policy implication on carbon reducing stratigies.