基于多区域、混合型的大型动态耦合综合评价模型对中国二氧化碳减排的技术经济路径、成本与政策研究

发展低碳经济、应对气候变化正在成为未来中国国家发展战略的重要组成部分。开展能源-环境-经济系统大型综合评价模型研究是提高气候政策决策科学性的重要支撑，也是实现多学科交叉融合、全面提升中国复杂系统动态耦合与优化理论研究水平的有效途径。本课题旨在针对中国2010年至2030年二氧化碳减排的技术经济优化路径展开研究，通过构建区域化的TIMEs与CGE模型动态耦合的混合能源-环境-经济-技术模型，将经济增长、产业转型、节能低碳目标、财税金融支持政策等与能源生产、转换及终端消费部门的技术进步路径进行综合优化模拟，探索模拟微观技术模块与宏观经济模块间的动态响应机制、预测分析中国在近、中、远期二氧化碳减排指标的多维度分配机制、各种减排情景对产出、就业、资本积累、劳动力转移等的宏观经济影响；规划设计新兴能源与低碳技术的发展路线、明晰关键目标与行动方案等，从而最终勾勒出中国经济实现低碳转型的产业推进路径。

Transiting to low-carbon economy and responding to climate change are becoming a key component of China's national development strategies in the future. Studies based on a large-scale integrated energy-environment-economy system assessment model not only provide a scientifically-sound backing for climate policy decision-making, but also serve as an effective means to achieve overall improvement in research on complex systems dynamics and optimization theory. This study aims to investigate optimal technology path for carbon dioxide abatement in China towards 2030. Using the newly developed multi-region, dynamic hybrid energy-environment-economy model integrating TIMEs and a CGE model, the study undertakes optimization simulations integrating economic growth, economic restructuring, energy-saving and low-carbon targets, and supportive economic and financial policies with technological progress path for production, conversion and final use of energy; explores dynamic responding mechanisms between micro-technology module and macroeconomic module; analyzes multiple dimensions of allocation mechanism on carbon dioxide emission control targets in the short-, medium- and long-term and macroeconomic effects on output, employment, capital accumulation, and labor mobility under alternative carbon-abating policy scenarios; plans and designs a roadmap to new energies and low-carbon technologies; and identifies key objectives and action plans in order to outline industrial advancing path for the transition to low-carbon economy in China.