基于双向队列的中医药治疗艾滋病疗效评价联合模型构建研究

中医药治疗AIDS疗效明显，哪些因素会影响中医疗效？尚不明确，队列研究可以回答这个问题,但其研究产生的数据兼具纵向数据和生存数据的特征,分析较困难。近年来纵向数据和生存数据的联合模型得到了快速发展，如似然估计模型、贝叶斯模型和混合效应模型等。本项目提出“以队列研究的数据构建联合模型可以评估AIDS中医药疗效的影响因素”的假说，拟在前期积累的大样本临床治疗AIDS数据的基础上，设计双向队列研究，在历史性队列研究中探索并构建适用于分析AIDS中医疗效影响因素的联合模型，评价其优劣后，将之应用于前瞻性队列研究中以明确其在AIDS中医疗效影响因素评估中的作用，最终完成模型的构建与应用。本项目的实施将明确AIDS中医疗效的影响因素，为优化治疗方案提供依据；提高中医药临床研究的统计分析水平；解决临床与科研脱节的实际问题，为重大疾病临床研究提供方法学参考。

The therapeutic effect of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is remarkable. But it is not clear that what kinds of factor may influence the final result. Cohort study can answer this question, while the data produced by the study have the characteristics of both longitudinal and survival data. In recent years, the joint model of longitudinal data and survival data has been developed rapidly, such as likelihood estimation model, Bayesian model and mixed effect model. In this research, we propose a hypothesis that the joint model developed from cohort study can be used to evaluate the factors influencing therapeutic effect of TCM treatment for AIDS. Based on the large data of clinical treatment for AIDS, we design an ambispective cohort study and construct a joint model to analyze the influencing factors in the historical cohort study. After evaluating the advantages and disadvantages, the model will be applied to prospective cohort study to clarify its role in the evaluation of influencing factors among TCM treatment for AIDS. The implementation of this research will clarify the factors affecting the efficacy of TCM treatment for AIDS and provide help to optimize the treatment options. Furthermore, it will improve the level of statistical analysis of TCM clinical research, bridge the gap between clinical treatment and scientific research, and provide methodological reference for the study of serious diseases.