定量监测火山灰云的宏观和微观特性对预报火山灰云的扩散路径、评估火山灰云扩散过程给航线带来的危害具有重要意义。气象卫星提供了一个大范围监测火山灰云物理特性的有效手段。虽然目前已开展了大量基于气象卫星的火山灰云高度和质量浓度反演研究，但由于气象卫星水平观测的本质，在垂直结构多层云条件下，气象云和火山灰云互相层叠干扰，使得气象卫星的反演结果不确定性越来越大。本研究拟联合星载主被动遥感观测资料，研究火山灰云垂直结构信息与热红外辐射传输模式中云参数的匹配方法。基于匹配的样本库，通过融合多种非线性反演方法，提高火山灰云顶高度和质量浓度的反演精度。在此基础上，结合卫星资料反演、火山灰云扩散模式模拟，开展火山灰云扩散预测方法研究，最终构建基于多源气象卫星数据的火山灰云监测与预报原型系统，并依托国家卫星气象中心，实现全球火山灰云的动态监测与短临预报的业务服务。

Quantitatively monitoring of volcanic ash cloud features such as ash height and mass loading is very important for predicting the evolution of volcanic ash and evaluating the impact to aviation. Meteorological satellites provide an effective way of monitoring and quantitatively retrieval of volcanic ash cloud parameters. Although progress has been made on volcanic ash height and mass loading retrieval, due to the intrinsic properties of passive meteorological satellite, challenge remains on volcanic ash parameters determination on very complicated meteorological background, such as there are multi-cloud layers in vertical scale. This is a main source of error in the final retrieval. This study proposes to synergistically use measurements from both passive and active satellites observations to collocate volcanic ash cloud vertical information and parameters from infrared transfer model. Based on the collocated dataset, volcanic ash parameters will be retrieved using two combined non-linear retrieval methods. Satellite retrieved volcanic ash parameters served as main input after certain process to volcanic ash transfer model to finally realize global volcanic ash monitoring and prediction. It is expected that a prototype system will be developed. Supported by national satellite meteorological center of China Meteorological Center, the final prototype system will be used in daily operational work for global volcanic ash monitoring and prediction.