土地利用变化、生态系统服务与人类福祉的相互复杂关系与作用机理是自然生态系统与社会经济研究中重要的交叉科学问题，也是“未来地球”研究中的重要内容。本项目以生态系统服务与人类福祉的耦合关系为研究对象，以土地利用为切入视角，以新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究区，运用系统生态学、生态系统服务流、参与式评估等方法，依据流域实地调研数据、气象数据、实验数据和统计资料，分析土地利用变化驱动因子，相应的生态系统服务与人类福祉的耦合因素，构建流域土地利用变化下生态系统服务—人类福祉耦合模型与耦合评价体系，阐明土地利用变化下二者的不同耦合关系和模式；以碳为载体，厘清流域系统土地利用-生态系统服务-人类福祉中的碳流动格局，探明相关生态系统服务供给-流动-传递-消费的路径，探索碳循环变化对相关生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响及机理，揭示生态系统服务与人类福祉的耦合过程与机制。

Mutual complex relationship and action mechanism among Land use change, ecosystem services and human well-being is the major interdisciplinary scientific topic in ecological ecosystem and socio-economic studies, also is an important part of the "Future Earth" study. In this programme, view from land use change, the coupling relationship between the ecosystem services and human well-being as the object of study, the Manas River valley as the study area, by using systems ecology, ecosystem service flows, participatory assessment methods, taking data from field research, meteorological data, experimental data and statistics, we will analysis land use change drivers, corresponding coupling factors of ecosystem services and human well-being and try to construct the coupling model and its evaluation system under the land use change, and clarify different coupling relationships and patterns; and taking carbon as the carrier, we also want to identify the carbon flow pattern in land use system - ecosystem services - human well-being, prove the path of supply - flow - pass - consumption, and explore the impact of changes in the carbon cycle on the mechanism of related ecosystem services and human well-being, reveals the coupling process and mechanisms for ecosystem services and human well-being .