老年健康贫困是中国农村地区消除贫困行动的重要挑战之一，疾病经济风险是诱发老年健康贫困的核心要素，该问题在空巢老人中更为严重。已有研究表明事后管理对疾病经济风险控制效果甚微。本研究以农村空巢老人疾病经济风险事前预警管理为切入点，利用灾难性卫生支出、致贫性卫生支出及家庭贫困脆弱性等核心风险评价指标，基于已有研究证实的疾病经济风险因素集，在建立的2年期家庭队列基线调查基础上，随访观察2年后重要结局事件发生水平，使用疾病别竞争风险模型构建疾病经济风险核心指标别风险预警模型。其后结合家庭应对疾病经济风险能力现状，对农村空巢老人家庭疾病经济风险进行综合预警分析。而后基于社会资本视角，提出农村空巢老人家庭应对疾病经济风险群体管理策略。同时，针对家庭个性化风险指标集，提出精准化风险管理策略。研究结果不仅能提升农村地区反贫困尤其是精准扶贫行动效果，也为有效推进农村地区健康老龄化发挥积极作用。

The issue of health poverty among the older people is one of the most important challenges of anti-poverty action in rural China, and disease economic risk is known as a key point of the incentives to such health poverty. Compared with non-empty nesters, the status of the health poverty induced by disease economic risk is more serious among the empty-nest seniors. Previous studies have demonstrated that risk management after the incidence of the diseases economic risk is inefficient. Hence, this study will focus on how to predict and control disease economic risk prior to the risk incidence. We will assess the risk based on three core indicators, catastrophic health expenditure, impoverishing health expenditure, and vulnerability to poverty of the sampling households. Based on a household cohort design, we will carry out a baseline survey, and also a two-year follow-up observations to identify the incidence of some key outcome events. Then, based on the risk factors identified by previous studies, we wil develop some specific risk models by using cause-specific competing risk function. After that, we will analyze the integrated disease economic risk based on the developed specific risk models, and also the risk coping ability of the households. We will also develop some risk alleviating strategies in two levels, one level for general households from a view of social capital, and the other for targeted household from a view of speicific risk factors of a household. The results of this study can not only enhance the effeciancy of anti-poverty in rural areas, especially the effect of targeting poverty alleviation, but also play an important role in promoting the healthy aging in rural China.