PPP项目多利益主体承诺升级机理与控制研究

管理者在决策过程中倾向于向失利的项目继续投入资源，即“承诺升级”（escalation commitment）。由于PPP项目投资大、周期长、不确定因素多、项目利益主体多等复杂因素，导致其管理决策面临巨大的风险性。一旦出现承诺升级，将会给各利益主体以及项目整体造成更大损失。因此，承诺升级是PPP项目实施过程中要重点控制的内容之一；然而，目前与之相关的研究极少。. 本课题旨在研究PPP项目利益主体（政府、投资者、银行）承诺升级机理及其控制。通过识别PPP项目利益主体承诺升级的影响因素，采用实验设计的方法研究多利益主体承诺升级的形成机理，通过实物期权理论进一步构建利益主体承诺升级的阀值模型，并设计PPP项目承诺升级的预防措施与退出机制。课题研究PPP项目决策者承诺升级机理，对于提升利益相关方风险决策水平，降低由承诺升级导致的损失具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。

Managers are inclined to keep investing failed projects during decision-making process, which is called ‘escalation commitment’. Decision-making process is high-risk because of the complex characteristics of PPP projects, such as large investment, long-period cycle, uncertain risks, multiple stakeholders, etc. Therefore, managers have to consider about lots of factors during this period and be prepared to deal with dynamic situations. Once escalation commitment appears during the decision-making process, stakeholders might face huge losses, even project itself might be influenced. Consequently, escalation commitment is one of the essential behaviors which must be seriously treated and controlled. However, there is few researches on escalation commitment among the studies of PPP projects. ..This study aims at exploring the mechanism of escalation commitment carried out by stakeholders (government, investor, bank) and finding methods to control it in order to reduce losses. By identifying and studying factors affecting escalation commitment, The formation process of escalation commitment and its mechanism will be clarified. Therefore, the model of threshold value and propose preventive measures will be designed, furthermore, and also withdrawal mechanism for precaution. Based on the research, it is hoped to figure out the mechanism of escalation commitment, and accordingly to enhance each party's decision making and reduce the potential loss, which will illustrates important theory value and pratical significance to PPP projects.