顾及“遥关联”效应的东部沿海地区土地利用变化情景模拟及其洪灾风险评估

东部沿海地区是我国经济发展的战略核心区和新型城镇化的主体区之一，在气候变暖和土地利用快速变化双重效应下，未来沿海地区的城市、人口和农田的洪灾风险将持续增加，预警并减轻未来洪灾风险将成为沿海可持续发展的重大挑战之一。本项目拟在RCP-SSP情景框架下，结合多情景预测、土地利用模拟、洪水灾害预估等技术，模拟沿海地区土地利用格局演化，并预估不同情景下的洪灾风险。具体研究内容包括：1）借助MRIO模型分解省份之间土地利用“遥关联”效应，预估未来不同情景下的土地利用需求结构；2）改进FLUS模拟模型，开展沿海地区未来多类土地利用变化情景模拟；3）考虑气候变暖和土地利用变化双重影响，预估未来沿海地区洪灾风险及情景差异。研究成果有助于明晰不同发展模式和气候变化下沿海地区的土地利用格局演化及洪灾风险差异，为区域空间规划、应对气候变化风险、制定减灾政策等提供方法和技术支持。

The coastal region of eastern China is one of the core areas featured with rapid economic development and new-type urbanization. Under the dual effects of climate warming and rapid land use/cover change (LUCC), the exposures of city, population and farmland to flood disaster are expected to continuous increase in the future. Thus, early warning and mitigation of future flood risks will become one of the major challenges of sustainable coastal development. This project intends to simulate the future LUCC in the coastal region and predict the future risk of flood disaster under the RCP-SSP scenario framework with tools of scenario prediction, land use simulation and flood disaster assessment. The research contents of the project include: 1) Decompose the remote-correlation effect of land use among provinces using the MRIO model, and then estimate the land use demands under different scenarios in the future; 2) Improve the original FLUS model, and then carry out multi-type LUCC simulations in coastal region under various scenarios; 3) Estimating the exposure risks to future flood disaster in coastal region and their differences among RCP-SSP scenarios, considering the dual impacts of climate change and social development. The research results help to clarify the evolution future LUCC in coastal region and the differences of flood disaster risks under various scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change. Besides, the findings will also provide theoretical and technical supports for future urban planning, mitigating challenge of climate change, and formulating disaster reduction policies.