不确定环境下多港口吞吐能力的整合优化问题研究

港口整合对抑制港口过度投资，防止岸线资源浪费和资产闲置具有重要意义。已有港口企业联盟或并购重组整合模式大都停留在管理体制的统一上，未从供需不平衡角度出发，优化港口群供给布局，促进港口间合理分工，以致港口资源闲置问题依然存在。与传统整合方法不同，本项目拟在不确定环境下基于系统最优思想实施多港口吞吐能力整合，调整港口群供给结构，以实现港口节约化发展战略。依据该研究思路，本项目首先考虑需求不确定性和气候变化影响的港口可靠性问题，构建不确定环境下的港口群吞吐能力供给布局优化模型，以确定港口群最优供给；然后以使现有港口群系统社会福利接近于最优供给港口群系统社会福利为目标，综合考虑港口投资扩张和转型升级问题，构建不确定环境下的多港口吞吐能力整合优化模型，并设计有效求解算法；最后，在我国主要港口群开展实际应用研究。项目成果将有助于拓展港口整合理论研究，为我国建设资源节约型世界一流港口提供重要理论支持。

Port integration is very important to suppress port overinvestment, and to prevent the waste of coastline resources and the set-aside of port assets. The existing integration modes regarding the alliance or mergers and acquisitions for port enterprises are mainly stuck in the unification of the port administration systems. However, none of these existing modes have optimized the layout of port group supply and promoted a reasonable division of the functions among ports from the perspective of unbalanced port supply and demand. As a result, the issue of the set-aside of port resources still exist. Different from the traditional port integration methods, this project intends to implement the multi-port capacity integration under uncertainty with the thought of system optimum and further adjust the structure of port group supply, and finally to realize the economized development for the ports. According to this research idea, after considering the demand uncertainty and the port reliability that affected by climate change, the optimization model of the layout of port capacity supply for the port group under uncertainty is firstly proposed to determine the optimal capacity supply of the port group. Secondly, to make the social welfare of existing port group system close to the social welfare of the port group system in optimal port capacity supply, the optimization model of multi-port capacity integration under uncertainty is built, and an effective algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model. Finally, the application research is conducted in Chinese main port group. The project outcomes can help to expand the theoretical research of port integration, and provide an important theoretical support for constructing the resource-saving word-class port in China.