基于居民健康福利视角的中国道路交通节能减排政策模拟及优化研究

近年来，随着中国道路交通部门的快速发展，其能源消费导致的排放问题日益严重，现已成为我国最主要空气污染源之一，对居民健康福利造成了严重的损害。然而，现有道路交通能源环境政策往往仅聚焦于“节能”或“减碳”政策目标，而忽视了污染气体排放对居民健康福利的短期、中期、长期和累积影响。因此，本项目基于AIDS, QUAIDS, Translog, Minflex Laurent等需求系统分析技术，针对居民、厂商和区域（如市县级、省级）等不同层次交通能源需求系统进行建模，从微观到宏观的综合视角，定量评估不同道路交通能源环境政策对居民健康福利水平的影响，力求为我国能源环境政策评估提供一个基于居民健康福利视角的研究框架。在此基础上，以提高居民健康福利为政策目标，通过不同的政策情景仿真，进一步提出更有效且更具可操作性的道路交通能源环境政策优化、制度设计方案和政策建议。

In recent years, the harmful emissions induced by energy consumption in road transport sector in China have become a serious social problem, and caused substantial residential health damages. However, relevant environmental policies usually focus only on the policy objectives of “energy saving” or “CO2 mitigation”, instead of the short-term, mid-term and long-term impacts of the aggregate harmful pollutions on the residential health. Therefore, based on the energy demand system techniques, e.g. Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS), Translog, etc, we establish the energy demand systems at the micro-levels (e.g. household and company levels) and the macro-levels (e.g. city and province levels); then, we further evaluate the impacts of the current transport policies on residential health welfare, to provide a new framework of policy analyses from the perspective of health gain/loss. Based on the foresaid models and policy analyses, we try to optimize the current policies, propose some more effective and feasible institutional design and policy suggestions.