基于需求系统分析视角的公共交通污染排放外部性研究

近年来,我国公共交通运输服务迅速发展,相应的能源需求不断增加,带来了日益增长的污染排放,对环境和公共健康造成了严重冲击。如何既不抑制公共交通需求从而影响经济发展,又能减少污染排放导致的社会成本和外部性问题,改进环境质量,增进公共福利成为不可忽视的重要理论和实践问题。然而,现有公共交通能源环境政策往往聚焦于“节能”、“减碳”政策目标,局限于公共交通和私人交通之间的外部性比较,忽视公共交通需求本身带来的污染排放外部性及其对环境质量、经济发展和公共福利的短期和中长期影响。因此,基于Rotterdam、Minflex Laurent、AIDS、QUAIDS、Translog等需求系统分析技术对公共交通需求系统进行建模,对其污染排放外部性和社会成本进行深入研究,力求探讨不影响经济发展、不抑制交通需求的科学合理制度设计,纠正公共交通污染排放社会外部性,实现经济发展、环境改善和社会福利提升多重政策目标。

In recent years, the harmful impacts induced by the rapid development of public transportation and related growing energy demand, became one of the most serious social problems in China. The social costs and externality of environmental deterioration and public welfare loss caused by pollution emissions have imposed significantly negative impacts on.the economic development and social well-being. However, the relevant policies usually focus only on the policy objectives of "energy saving" or "carbon mitigation", instead of the short-term, medium-term and long-term impacts of the aggregate harmful pollutions on the resource, environment, economic development and public health benefits. Therefore, based on the energy demand system techniques such as Rotterdam/ Minflex Laurent/ AIDS / QUAIDS / Translog, we establish the energy demand systems of public transportation demand and conduct a simulation study on the changes of externalities of public transport pollution emissions under different policy paths. We try to explore a reasonable institutional design to correct the social externalities of public transport without hindering the economic development or the traffic demand, so as to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction while promoting economic development and social welfare, achieving the multiple policy targets.