中国道路交通部门污染排放对居民健康福利的影响研究

中国道路交通部门是污染排放的重点领域，该部门的污染排放对于居民健康造成的外部性损失已日渐显著,不可忽视。为此，本项目在考虑代际关系的前提下，基于自底而上与自顶而下相结合的混合节能减排政策仿真模型，模拟 2007-2050年中国道路交通部门各种节能减排政策路径的空气污染短期与中长期累积健康效应，分析其对宏观经济系统的影响，进而从微观与宏观层面的综合视角来评估各种政策路径的环境外部性收益，以期为中国未来道路交通部门的发展方式提供定量化决策支持和政策建议，同时也为能源环境政策的外部性评估提供一个新的研究框架。

Nowadays the road transport sector has already been one of the major emitters in China, whose emissions caused substantive externality losses to residents' health. Therefore, considering the trans-generation welfare distribution, we set up hybrid policy simulation models, namely, top-down and bottom-up ones, to analyze the policy impacts of mitigating the short- and long-term accumulated emissions on residents' health in China during 2007-2050. Then, within our frameworks, the impacts will be feedbacked to the macro-economic system, to evaluate the externalty gains by means of different policy approaches. Finally, we aim at proposing feasible and applicable policies that might provide a deeper insight on sustainable development of the road transport sector in China. Meanwhile, our investigations might provide a new research framework that might enrich the current literature and provide more powerful tools for our peers, practitioners and policy makers in this field.