重大工程项目成功要素识别、双元驱动及组织适应性研究

针对重大工程管理“绩效悖论”，学术界和工业界正行进在揭示黑匣子秘密的路上。重大工程管理理论体系创新构建和实践方法有效形成很难取得实质性进展的重要原因是对“重大工程项目成功（MIPS）”缺少系统性认识。课题突破传统项目管理和工程管理视角，整合复杂项目管理和复杂工程管理最新理论和标杆实践，采用扎根理论质性研究、多案例纵贯对比研究、机器学习技术等方法，对MIPS动态评价、影响要素、驱动路径及组织适应性等关键问题展开研究，具体包括（1）构建MIPS评价系统维度集，拓展生命周期动态评价体系，识别MIPS影响要素，从静态因果关系与动态涌现效应双视角分析影响机理；（2）透过行为动机和制度环境，识别MIPS内外部动因，建立双元驱动模型并探寻驱动路径；（3）基于显性突变和隐形漂移两种情境，运用ABM方法构建“关键要素-驱动路径-关键利益相关者-重大工程项目成功”动态仿真模型，提出MIPS组织适应性提升策略。

Currently, academic and industrial researchers are exploring the basic mechanisms that cause the “performance paradox” in the realm of Mega-infrastructure Project Management. One of the leading reasons to this performance issues, which are reflected on the limited achievements of theoretical system construction and practical methods, is the insufficient understanding of Mega-infrastructure Project Success (MIPS). Our proposed study thinks out of the traditional perspectives of project management and construction management and understanding of the MIPS and integrates the latest theories and benchmarking practices of complex project management and complex construction management, by adopting grounded theory, multiple case studies, and machine learning methods. The critical questions related to the MIPS, including the dynamic evaluation, influencing factors, driving mechanism and organization adaptability, therefore are expected to be studied holistically. The specific key research contents include (1) developing an evaluation dimension set and a full-life-cycle dynamic evaluation system for MIPS; furthermore, identifying influencing factors of MIPS and exploring static causality and dynamic effects respectively. (2) Identifying the internal and external drivers based on the behavioral motivation theory and institutional theory, and further investigating the driving mechanism. (3) Establishing the ABM simulation model of “influencing factors-driving mechanism-key stakeholders-MIPS” by considering the two typical scenarios, namely dominant mutation and stealth drift. Meanwhile, the improvement strategies of MIPS organization adaptability are proposed facilitated by the simulation model.