海岸带生境动态变化与农户土地利用生计策略多情景模拟及政策调控研究：以广西北部湾为例

本项目以我国海岸带生境动态变化显著的广西北部湾为研究区域，选择农户土地利用生计策略为切入点，基于实地调查、多期遥感影像、统计资料等数据，综合运用GIS、空间统计等技术，刻画北部湾海岸带生境动态变化的时空分异态势，绘制重要时间断面的空间格局图；提炼海岸带生境动态变化关键表征指标及农户土地利用生计策略影响因素，揭示两者间的互动过程与机理，并运用CLUmondo和MAS模型从宏、微观两个层面构建智能模拟模型；最后，利用模型预测不同情景下海岸带生境的变化和趋势，构建调控因子集、获得关键因子及调控优先次序，为中央及有关部门管理提供决策参考。本研究是基于管理学、地理学、环境科学多学科交叉的动态、综合研究，围绕北部湾海岸带生境动态变化与农户土地利用生计策略间的耦合机理进行研究，并将智能模拟模型与科学决策整合起来，对协调当前海岸带生境保护与农户生计不可持续的矛盾，创新海岸带管理制度有着较为重要参考价值。

Due to the significant dynamic change of coastal habitat, Beibu Gulf of China, located in Guangxi Province, was selected as the research target in this study. From the perspective of farmers who use coastal land for their living strategy, based on data from field investigation, multi-period remote sensing image, statistical data and other sources, by using the method of ArcGIS, spatial statistics, etc. the spatial and temporal divergence of habitat dynamics in the coastal area of the Beibu Gulf was depicted, and the spatial pattern of the important time slots was identified. In addition, the key indicators for the dynamic changes of coastal habitats and the influential factors of farmers' land use strategies were developed, and from there the interaction between those two was further disclosed. Furthermore, CLUmondo and MAS model was used to construct an intelligent simulation model at macro and micro levels. Finally, a model was constructed to predict the changes and trends of coastal habitats in different scenarios, controlling factor sets were built, key factors were obtained and priorities for the management of coastal habitat were set. The findings of this project can be used by the central government and other relevant departments for policy making. This project is a multi-disciplinary study which is based on the knowledge of management, geography, and environmental science. It uses mathematical models to simulate the interaction between Beibu coastal habitat changes and farmers’ land use strategy. The project aims to respond to our country’s policy of environmental protection and ease the conflicts between the coastal zone habitat protection and farmers’ livelihood. Thus, findings of this project are good references for the innovation of coastall management institutions.