海陆交错区国土空间管制下农地发展受限与农户可行性能力动态变化过程模拟及政策响应——广西北部湾的实证分析

为了实现国家生态文明建设的目标，海陆交错区开发与保护战略从开发主导型向保护主导型转变，必然导致受限区域土地发展受限和利益相关群体福利受损。如何科学搭建国土空间管制农地发展受限研究框架，测度受限程度和外部性效应，研究农地发展受限与农户可行性能力变化机制，制定优化国土空间格局、外部效应内部化、农地管制与可持续利用、农户可行性能力提升的政策，不仅是学界尚未很好解决的重要课题，也是各国政府关注的现实难题。本项目以广西北部湾海陆交错区为例，在深入调研的基础上，建立海陆交错区国土空间管制农地发展受限与农户可行性能力变化机制的理论框架，综合运用多学科工具和数据，揭示外部性扩散机理和效应，运用可行性能力分析框架，研究农户福利与政策响应之间的变化关系，并通过智能模型模拟海陆交错区与农户福利动态变化的趋势，为中央及地方提供创新海陆交错区可持续发展的政策提供科学的决策依据和参考。

In order to achieve the goal of national ecological civilization, the development and protection strategy of Marine-terrestrial ecotone will change from development-oriented to protection-oriented, which will inevitably lead to limited land development in restricted areas and damage to the welfare of Interest-related groups. How to scientifically set up a research framework for the restriction of Spatial zoning on agricultural land development, measure the degree of restriction and external effects, study the mechanism of the restriction of agricultural land development and the change of farmers’ capability approach, formulate policies in order to optimize land spatial pattern, internalize external effects, control and sustainable use of agricultural land, and enhance farmers’ capability approach is not only an important issue that the academic circles have not yet solved, but also a practical problem that governments of all countries are concerned about. Taking the Marine-terrestrial ecotone of the Guangxi Beibu Gulf as an example, the project establishes a theoretical framework for the limitation of land development and the capability approach in the Marine-terrestrial ecotone based on the investigation. It uses multidisciplinary tools and data to reveal the external diffusion mechanism and effect, as well as uses the framework of feasibility analysis to study the change between farmer’s welfare and policy response. Through the intelligent model to simulate the trend of the dynamic change of Marine-terrestrial ecotone and farmers’ welfare in multi-situation, it provides scientific decision-making basis and reference for the central and local policy opinions of providing an innovative sea-land interlaced area for sustainable development and rural revitalization and development.