自然和人为双重驱动下流域径流变化归因分析及不确定性量化方法研究

流域径流过程受气候变化与人类活动的共同作用，甄别其中的自然和人为因素对于增加全球变化的理解、有效应对环境变化非常重要，也是当前变化环境下水文科学的热点和难点之一。本项目针对径流变化归因分析中对自然因素和不确定性认识不足的问题，综合应用水文学、气象学、地理学、统计学、系统科学等理论，从自然和人为双重角度剖析变化环境因素，提出基于不确定性分析的流域径流变化归因识别方法。主要内容：（1）流域径流变化特征分析及突变点诊断，分析存在多个径流突变点的不确定性问题；（2）影响流域径流变化的不确定性因素分析，考虑气候自然变异、人为气候变化和人类活动对流域下垫面及水资源状况的影响三个来源；（3）考虑不确定性的径流变化归因分析方法的构建及应用。研究成果将促进变化环境下水文模拟及预报基础研究的发展，对于认清流域径流变化的主导因素、更为可靠地预测未来变化环境下径流变化趋势、以及更为有效地适应全球变化具有重要意义。

Runoff processing was impacted by climate change and human activity. As one of the research hotspots and difficulties in hydrology under changing environment, it is very essential to identify the natural and anthropogenic factors in the runoff variation to increase understanding on global change, and to efficiently adapt environmental change. Aiming at the problem of insufficient understanding on natural factors and uncertainty, this study would address hydrology, meteorology, geography, statistics and systems science in an integrated manner to explore the environmental elements from natural and anthropogenic perspectives. The new method framework based on uncertainty analysis for runoff variation attribution is presented. Its main subjects are as follows: (1)analysis on characteristics of runoff variation and diagnosis on abrupt change points, involving multi-abrupt change; (2)uncertainty analysis and estimation on runoff variation, addressing natural climate variability, human-induced climate change and human activity for underlying surface and water resources situation; (3)a new method of uncertainty framework for runoff variation attribution. The expected achievements could highlight the progress of hydrological modeling and forecasting under changing environment, and clarify the dominated element impacting runoff variation. It is very valuable to predict the future runoff trend more reliably, to support the efficient strategy and action to adapt global change more robustly.