雅鲁藏布江典型支流径流对气候与植被变化的耦合响应及不确定性研究

高原植被对气候变化的响应及其径流效应是目前国际上全球变化与环境领域重要的科学问题，也是西南河流源区径流变化和适应性利用的主要研究方向之一。本项目综合应用水文学、气象学、遥感学、地理学、统计学和系统科学等理论，采用区域监测实验，通过数据同化融合技术集成应用卫星、遥感、地面观测、再分析等数据，选取雅鲁藏布江典型支流尼洋河为研究区域，针对高寒区观测资料短缺、气候与植被变化对径流的影响机理及贡献率等问题开展研究。主要内容：（1）典型植被变化区水文过程监测实验；（2）多源水文气象数据同化融合和不确定性分析；（3）气候变化对植被变化的驱动效应；（4）气候变化驱动下植被变化的多时间尺度径流效应模拟；（5）气候变化与植被变化对径流变化的贡献率分析。研究成果可促进变化环境下高寒区水文过程机理研究、缺资料地区复杂下垫面下的水文模拟与预报，可为雅鲁藏布江流域适应气候变化和可持续水（能）资源开发利用提供科学依据。

Tibet Plateau vegetation response to climate change and its effect on runoff has been one international dominated issue in the research field of global change and environment, and also a main direction of the project of runoff variation and adaptable land use in sourth-east river sources. This study would focus on the issues of observed data shortage, the mechanism and contribution of climate change and vegetation on runoff, taking Niyang River as a typical catchment of the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, addressing hydrology, meteorology, geography, statistics and systems science in a integrated manner, incorporating regional monitoring experiments. Its main subjects are as follows:(1) monitoring experiments on hydrological processes in typical vegetation cover districts; (2)multi-source hydro-meteorological data assimilation and fusion and uncertainty analysis; (3) climate change driving effect on vegetation cover change; (4) multi-time scales of runoff affected by vegetation cover variation under climate change in high cold regions; (5) contribution analysis of climate change and vegetation cover variation on runoff processing. The expected achievements could highlight the progress of hydrological process foundations and hydrological forecasting under environmental change in high cold regions with observed data shortage, and support sustainable water resource management and hydropower development in the Yarlung Zangbo river.