天山地区水资源变化的主导因素与机制分析

天山被誉为“中亚水塔”，是丝绸之路经济带中段的主要水源地和生态屏障。在全球气温呈高温波动态势的影响下，天山地区以冰雪融水为基础的水资源系统更加脆弱。针对该区水循环过程的复杂性及水资源对气候变化极度敏感的特点，本项目重点研究气温高位态波动状态下的中亚天山降水形式、时空分布及雨雪比变化对冰川/积雪融水过程和区域水资源的可能影响；基于多卫星遥感手段和实测数据，揭示冰川及季节性积雪变化的物理过程和空间分布规律；构建适合干旱区山、盆相间特殊地貌格局的水文模型，分析径流形成区的产汇流过程及其对气候变化的响应机理；采用同位素水文学法，定量刻画高山区冰雪融水、中山带森林降水和裂隙基岩水等水资源组分构成，探索水资源形成、转化机理；结合水资源组分构成及对气候变化的敏感性分析，预估未来不同气候情景下的水文过程和水资源变化趋势，为国家在中亚地区国际河流水资源谈判提供科学依据，服务于丝绸之路经济带建设宏伟目标。

Tianshan Mountains, with the status of "water tower of Central Asia", is the main water source and ecological barrier of the silk road economic belt. Recent observational temperature has been in a state of high variability, which may cause the meltwater-based system even more vulnerable in the Tianshan Mountains. The characteristics of water formation, spatial and temporal distribution in the Tianshan Mountains are very distinct, the unique water cycle has a strong sensitivity to climate change. This project clarifies the influence mechanism of precipitation fraction, snowfall rate, glacier / snowmelt water process on water resources under the content of high variability of temperature, and reveals the physical processes and spatial distribution of glaciers and snow. Moreover, builds a hydrological model that suit for the special topography of arid region, and analyzes the process of runoff-producing and flow concentration. Based on the isotope hydrological method, this project quantitatively depicts the components of ice-snow meltwater on the high mountains, precipitation in the mid-mountain forest, and fissure water in the low mountain areas. Combined the components of water composition and sensitivity of climate change, this project estimates the trends of water resource in different scenarios in the future. This is understanding will then lay a scientific basis for the water negotiation of the international river in Central Asia and silk road economic belt construction.