流行病学研究证实，传染病的暴发与气候变化密切相关，气候变化也大大增加传染病流行和传播的风险。因此，在全球气候变化和大气环境日益恶化的今天，研究气候变化对传染病流行和传播的影响及其健康风险的定量评估具有重要的科学意义和现实意义。本项目拟利用时间序列建立甘肃典型传染病与气候要素的健康暴露反应关系，定量研究气温每升高1°C的健康风险，明确气候变化对传染病发病率、发病时间、发病范围的影响；利用WRF模式模拟不同气候情景下未来气候变化特征，将模拟结果作为健康模型输入，定量评估未来气候变化对传染病流行和传播的健康风险；并利用WCRP耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模拟结果，研究全球升温达到1.5°C和2.0°C阈值时典型传染病发病率变化，结合不同情景下平均气温上升幅度，探索气候变化的健康阈值。研究结果可为传染病预防和有效减轻气候变化对人群健康的危害提供科学参考依据，为制定长远决策提供科学建议。

Studies on epidemic diseases have proven that climate is closely related to infectious disease outbreaks; adverse changes in climatic elements (e.g., increases in air temperature) could significantly increase human health risks by accelerating infectious disease transmission and causing more epidemics. Against the background of global warming, climate has been changing at a faster-than-ever speed. Such changes make it imperative to conduct health risk assessments by quantifying the comprehensive impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission. In our project, the goal is to determine the increase-response relationship between air temperature and infectious diseases in Gansu, China. We intend to quantify the potential changes in spatial coverage and temporal trends of infectious diseases for per one degree Celsius increase in air temperature. In order to obtain the downscaled future climate projections in the study province, we chose to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to downscale the driving forces in the atmospheric circulation patterns. In addition, we will use the simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to explore the health thresholds of increases in air temperature. More specifically, we will assess the potential changes in the prevalence and incidence of infections (typical infectious diseases) in populations in Gansu, respectively, and try to explore the temperature threshold for public health in the study area combined the temperature increase under difference senarios, when the threshold of global air temperature increase is set as 1.5˚C and 2.0˚C. Our project will provide scientific evidence to assist the local Health and Human Services authorities to develop prevention strategies to combact infectious diseases that have been aggravated by adverse changes in climate.