Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China.
Assessment of mortality risks due to a strong cold spell in 2022 in China.
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DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1322019
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Jiao, Haoran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Wanci;Ma, Yuxia;Qin, Pengpeng;Liu, Zongrui;Zhao, Yuhan;Jiao, Haoran
随着全球气候变暖的加剧，寒流等极端低温事件已成为对公众健康的日益重大威胁。很少有研究研究中国多个省份的寒流与死亡率之间的关系。我们利用温度和死亡率的健康影响函数对2022年11月26日中国第一次冬季寒潮的健康风险进行了量化，并从环流场的角度分析了寒潮发展较强的原因。此次寒潮是乌拉尔山脉阻塞性高压系统不断加强，导致其前方冷涡加深的结果。与冷锋移动有关的温度变化产生了额外的死亡风险和死亡负担。总体而言，中国寒潮期间死亡的平均超额风险(ER)为2.75%，累计超额死亡369,056人。与气温相关的健康风险在中国的空间分布不均匀，ER值从最小的0.14%到最大的5.72%不等，气温下降对中国南方地区的影响不成比例地大于北方地区。累计超额死亡人数以中国东部和中部最高，分别为87655人和80230人，中国西北部最低，为27474人。在这些省份中，山东的超额死亡人数最高，为29492人，西藏最低，仅为196人。这项研究可以为中国带来的寒冷带来的死亡负担提供一些洞察，同时也强调了理解极端低温事件与人类健康之间复杂关系的重要性。研究结果可为制定相关的公共卫生政策提供有价值的启示。
With the intensification of global climate warming, extreme low temperature events such as cold spells have become an increasingly significant threat to public health. Few studies have examined the relationship between cold spells and mortality in multiple Chinese provinces. We employed health impact functions for temperature and mortality to quantify the health risks of the first winter cold spell in China on November 26th, 2022, and analyzed the reasons for the stronger development of the cold spell in terms of the circulation field. This cold spell was a result of the continuous reinforcement of the blocking high-pressure system in the Ural Mountains, leading to the deepening of the cold vortex in front of it. Temperature changes associated with the movement of cold fronts produced additional mortality risks and mortality burdens. In general, the average excess risk (ER) of death during the cold spell in China was 2.75%, with a total cumulative excess of 369,056 deaths. The health risks associated with temperatures were unevenly distributed spatially in China, with the ER values ranging from a minimum of 0.14% to a maximum of 5.72%, and temperature drops disproportionately affect southern regions of China more than northern regions. The cumulative excess deaths exibited the highest in eastern and central China, with 87,655 and 80,230 respectively, and the lowest in northwest China with 27,474 deaths. Among the provinces, excess deaths pronounced the highest in Shandong with 29,492 and the lowest in Tibet with only 196. The study can provide some insight into the mortality burden of cold spells in China, while emphasising the importance of understanding the complex relationship between extreme low temperature events and human health. The outcomes could provide valuable revelations for informing pertinent public health policies.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Allen, Michael J.;Sheridan, Scott C.
通讯作者：
Sheridan, Scott C.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Allen, Michael J.;Sheridan, Scott C.
通讯作者：
Sheridan, Scott C.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Chmura, Pawel;Konefal, Marek;Chmura, Jan
通讯作者：
Chmura, Jan
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Conlon KC;Rajkovich NB;White-Newsome JL;Larsen L;O'Neill MS
通讯作者：
O'Neill MS