国际工程风险管理投入决策优化研究

传统的投标阶段风险管理投入决策模式使我国工程承包企业在海外市场蒙受重大风险损失，因此我国企业亟需基于国际环境的风险管理投入决策的研究成果。本课题以国际工程项目为研究对象，识别并归纳关键风险源的属性；揭示风险管理投入各要素在关键风险源引起项目风险损失这一过程中的调节效应，从而打开风险管理投入对产出的影响机理黑箱。同时分析承包企业和项目管理者的行为特征，分别研究风险偏好与风险管理投入要素组合，以及与项目风险管理目标之间的关系，从而阐释风险偏好对于风险管理投入决策过程的作用规律。最后构建国际工程风险管理投入决策优化模型，充分考虑企业所处实际情境和资源约束，提出针对海外投标阶段的最优风险管理策略建议。本课题将归纳出国际工程风险管理投入的本质属性，以及风险管理投入决策优化的普适性规律和机理，丰富项目风险管理理论，进而为国际工程承包企业在投标阶段进行风险管理投入决策提供支持。

Chinese contractors' traditional decision-making, as part of the risk management process, can cause huge losses when they work overseas. This makes risk prevention an important area on which to focus. Studies of decision-making models for risk management input appropriate to the global market are needed. This study first identifies and generalizes the attributes of risk factors according to the distinctiveness of international projects. It reveals the moderating effects on risk losses during the risk management that can be achieved by analyzing the input mechanisms. This study establishes the relationship between risk preference and risk management input/risk management objectives with reference to the behavior of the enterprise and the project managers. Once the influence of risk preference on decision-making is understood, a planning model for risk management input will be established with a comprehensive consideration of the bidding process and resource constraints. Finally, optimal solutions and risk strategies will be identified. The research will abstract the essential attributes of the mechanisms for decision-making in risk management input. These are intended to enrich the theory of project risk management and help to improve Chinese contractors' decision-making at the international project bidding stage.