重大突发公共卫生事件下供需高度动荡对农业企业绩效的影响机理与应急响应机制研究——组织韧性视角

2020年的新冠肺炎疫情让社会处在一个动荡不安的环境中，这种高度不确定状态促发的供需端激烈震荡给农业企业带来了巨大冲击，导致一些企业面临严峻的生存发展危机。重大突发公共卫生事件下供需高度动荡如何影响农业企业绩效，以及可以构建何种机制来有效应对这种冲击。上述问题已经为各界高度关注，亟需得到系统的理论回应。本项目拟借鉴危机管理、组织韧性和绩效管理相关理论，基于组织韧性视角提出“供需高度动荡-组织韧性-企业绩效”的理论模型及假设。通过选取湖北等六个省市400家农业企业进行问卷调查和案例研究，运用多元线性回归分析、结构方程模型等方法进行实证分析。试图揭示新冠肺炎疫情下供需高度动荡对农业企业绩效的影响机理及组织韧性在其中所起的阻隔缓冲机制，进而构建起以韧性为核心，可管、可控的农业企业应急响应机制。研究将深化组织韧性和企业应急管理的理论认识，为农业企业有效应对重大突发公共卫生事件提供韧性维度的参考。

The society in all countries was in a turbulent situation due to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the highly uncertainty triggered the supply-demand shock in the market, which brings enormous challenges to agricultural enterprises and to lead to some agricultural enterprises face with survival and developing crisis. So how will highly volatile supply-demand market affect agricultural enterprise performance under the influence of major public health emergencies and what kinds of mechanisms can we construct to effectively respond to such shocks? The above problems have become a hot issue among all social circles and also need to obtain systematic theoretical responses. The paper refers to the relevant theories such as crisis management, resilience and performance management and constructs the theoretical model and hypothesis of “highly volatile supply-demand market-resilience-enterprise performance” from the prospective of resilience. And 400 agricultural enterprises of Hubei and other six provinces and cities were selected to conduct a questionnaire survey and case study, and multiple linear regression and structural equation model were applied to do empirical analysis, the paper attempts to reveal the influencing mechanism of highly volatile supply-demand market that caused by the novel coronavirus how to affect the agricultural enterprises performance and the blocking and buffering mechanism produced by resilience for that situation, then to further construct a observable, manageable and controllable emergency response mechanism of agricultural enterprises by taking resilience as the core. Finally, the paper will further deepen the researches on resilience and enterprise emergency management and provide a reference for agricultural enterprises about how to effectively respond to major public health emergencies from the perspective of resilience.