Trade characteristics, competition patterns and COVID-19 related shock propagation in the global solar photovoltaic cell trade

Trade characteristics, competition patterns and COVID-19 related shock propagation in the global solar photovoltaic cell trade
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全球太阳能光伏电池贸易的贸易特征、竞争格局和与COVID-19相关的冲击传播

DOI:
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116744
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发表时间:
2021-05
期刊:
影响因子:
11.2
通讯作者:
Pezhman Ghadimi
Pezhman Ghadimi
中科院分区:
工程技术1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Chao Wang;Xia Huang;Xiaoqian Hu;Longfeng Zhao;Chao Liu;Pezhman Ghadimi

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随着化石燃料的快速枯竭和对气候变化的日益关注,光伏系统已成为实现电力部门脱碳和可持续能源供应的关键技术选择。全球光伏电池贸易在过去二十年中急剧增长,值得进行专门的调查。首先,从静态分析的角度,构建了2000 - 2019年全球光伏电池贸易网络和贸易竞争网络,分析了全球光伏电池贸易的贸易特征和竞争格局。其次,从动态分析的角度,基于2019年的贸易数据,模拟了2019年冠状病毒病对全球光伏电池贸易的潜在影响。网络分析显示,中国、德国和日本长期主导光伏电池贸易市场。从2000年到2019年,中国进出口总额都是最大的。亚洲国家在全球光伏电池出口中占据重要地位。全球光伏电池贸易的竞争集中在亚洲和欧洲。模拟结果表明,全球光伏电池贸易网络呈现出“鲁棒但脆弱”的结构。这一网络对减少需求驱动的冲击的抵抗力比对减少供应驱动的冲击的抵抗力强。政策影响提供管理光伏电池贸易在国家和全球层面,并应对未来的极端干扰。
With the rapid depletion of fossil fuels and increasing concern about climate change, photovoltaic systems have become a key technology option for realizing a decarbonized power sector and sustainable energy supply. The global trade in photovoltaic cells has increased dramatically in the last two decades and deserves a dedicated investigation. First, from a static analysis perspective, this study builds the global photovoltaic cell trade network and trade competition network from 2000 to 2019 and analyzes the trade characteristics and competition pattern in the global photovoltaic cell trade. Second, from a dynamic analysis perspective, the potential impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 on the global photovoltaic cell trade is simulated based on 2019 trade data. The network analyses show that China, Germany and Japan have long dominated the trade market in photovoltaic cells. From 2000 to 2019, China’s total imports and exports were the largest. Asian countries held an important position in global photovoltaic cell exports. The competition in the global photovoltaic cell trade was concentrated in Asia and Europe. The simulation results indicate that the global photovoltaic cell trade network shows a “robust-yet-fragile” configuration. This network is more resistant to demand-reduction-driven shocks than to supply-reduction-driven shocks. Policy implications are provided for managing the photovoltaic cell trade at the national and global levels and coping with future extreme disturbances.
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