Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty
Embracing Complexity and Uncertainty
复制标题
拥抱复杂性和不确定性
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Winkler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Winkler
地理学家可以为解决问题做出有意义和独特的贡献，并协助弱势群体做出明智的决定。当代的环境和社会问题是复杂的，并伴随着不确定性。必须在这种不确定性面前作出决定。在这个地址，地理学家鼓励拥抱，而不是最小化，复杂性和不确定性，在他们的研究，并在他们与决策者的互动。适应气候变化是用来说明无处不在的不确定性解决问题，以及如何选择评估框架可以过分强调一些不确定性的来源，而忽视其他。一个挑战是传达决策者需要的关于复杂性和不确定性的信息，以便作出有力和灵活的决策，但同时防止将不确定性等同于缺乏共识，并将其用作不采取行动的理由。地理学家需要对决策的多种方法持开放态度，并承认自己研究中的不确定性。为决策者重新制定不确定性的沟通框架，开发新的教育工具和学习材料，将有助于决策。与决策者的持续接触，包括共同创造知识，也可以导致更多地考虑复杂性和不确定性，并改进决策。地理学家不应该“保持简单”，而应该“保持复杂”。
Geographers can meaningfully and uniquely contribute to problem solving and assist vulnerable populations in making informed decisions. Contemporary environmental and social problems are complex and accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions must be made in the face of this uncertainty. In this address, geographers are encouraged to embrace, rather than minimize, complexity and uncertainty in their research and in their interactions with decision makers. Adaptation to climate change is used to illustrate the ubiquitous uncertainty surrounding problem solving and how the choice of assessment framework can overemphasize some sources of uncertainty and ignore others. A challenge is to communicate the information about complexity and uncertainty that decision makers need for robust and flexible decision making but at the same time prevent uncertainty from being equated with a lack of consensus and used as a reason for inaction. Geographers need to be open to a plurality of approaches to decision making and acknowledge uncertainty in their own research. Reframing the communication of uncertainty and the development of novel educational tools and learning materials for decision makers will facilitate decision making. Sustained engagement with decision makers, including the coproduction of knowledge, can also lead to greater consideration of complexity and uncertainty and to improved decision making. Rather than “keeping it simple,” geographers should “keep it complex.”
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
J. Winkler;S. Thornsbury;Marco Artavia;F. Chmielewski;D. Kirschke;Sangjun Lee;Malgorzata Liszewska;S. Loveridge;Pang-Ning Tan;S. Zhong;J. Andresen;Roy R. Black;R. Kurlus;Denys Nizalov;N. Olynk;Z. Ustrnul;C. Zavalloni;J. M. Bisanz;G. Bujdosó;Lesley A. Fusina;Yvonne Henniges;P. Hilsendegen;K. Lar;Lukasz Malarzewski;Lukasz Malarzewski;Thordis Moeller;Roman Murmylo;T. Niedźwiedź;T. Niedźwiedź;O. Nizalova;H. Prawiranata;N. Rothwell;J. V. Ravensway;H. Witzke;M. Woods
通讯作者：
J. Winkler;S. Thornsbury;Marco Artavia;F. Chmielewski;D. Kirschke;Sangjun Lee;Malgorzata Liszewska;S. Loveridge;Pang-Ning Tan;S. Zhong;J. Andresen;Roy R. Black;R. Kurlus;Denys Nizalov;N. Olynk;Z. Ustrnul;C. Zavalloni;J. M. Bisanz;G. Bujdosó;Lesley A. Fusina;Yvonne Henniges;P. Hilsendegen;K. Lar;Lukasz Malarzewski;Lukasz Malarzewski;Thordis Moeller;Roman Murmylo;T. Niedźwiedź;T. Niedźwiedź;O. Nizalova;H. Prawiranata;N. Rothwell;J. V. Ravensway;H. Witzke;M. Woods
有能力应对气候和影响预测的不确定性：内部同行评审的经验教训
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Wesselink A
通讯作者：
Wesselink A