Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach
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中国道路客运的直接能源反弹效应:动态面板分位数回归方法

DOI:
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.09.022
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发表时间:
2015-12
期刊:
影响因子:
9
通讯作者:
Tan, Weiping
Tan, Weiping
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Liu, Zhao;Liu, Zhao;Tan, Weiping;Tan, Weiping

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交通运输是中国能源消费大户,在节能方面发挥着重要作用。提高能源效率是降低交通运输部门能源消耗的有效途径,但其有效性可能受到反弹效应的影响。本文基于2003 - 2012年中国30个省份的数据,建立了一个动态面板分位数回归模型,分别对全国、东部、中部和西部的道路客运直接能量反弹效应进行了估算。实证结果表明,首先,道路客运确实存在直接反弹效应,在全国范围内,短期和长期直接反弹效应平均分别为25.53%和26.56%。②随着客运公里数的增加,中东部地区道路客运直接反弹效应呈现先减小后增大后减小的趋势,西部地区道路客运直接反弹效应呈现先减小后增大的趋势;最后,在道路客运部门实施能效政策时,西部地区总体节能效果明显好于中部地区,中部地区节能效果相对好于东部地区。
The transport sector appears a main energy consumer in China and plays a significant role in energy conservation. Improving energy efficiency proves an effective way to reduce energy consumption in transport sector, whereas its effectiveness may be affected by the rebound effect. This paper proposes a dynamic panel quantile regression model to estimate the direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in the whole country, eastern, central and western China, respectively, based on the data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012. The empirical results reveal that, first of all, the direct rebound effect does exist for road passenger transport and on the whole country, the short-term and long-term direct rebound effects are 25.53% and 26.56% on average, respectively. Second, the direct rebound effect for road passenger transport in central and eastern China tends to decrease, increase and then decrease again, whereas that in western China decreases and then increases, with the increasing passenger kilometers. Finally, when implementing energy efficiency policy in road passenger transport sector, the effectiveness of energy conservation in western China proves much better than that in central China overall, while the effectiveness in central China is relatively better than that in eastern China.
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