China's excess males, sex selective abortion, and one child policy: analysis of data from 2005 national intercensus survey.
China's excess males, sex selective abortion, and one child policy: analysis of data from 2005 national intercensus survey.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.b1211
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发表时间：
2009-04-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Hesketh T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu WX;Lu L;Hesketh T
目标 阐明中国出生性别比和 20 岁以下人口的当前趋势和地理格局，并确定性别选择性堕胎和独生子女政策所发挥的作用。 2005 年 11 月完成的基于户的横断面人口调查的设计分析。设置中国所有 2861 个县。人口占总人口的1%，选取具有广泛代表性的总人口。主要结果指标 性别比定义为每 100 名女性中的男性。结果 20岁以下人群4 764 512人被纳入。所有年龄组和居住类型的总体性别比都很高，但 1-4 岁年龄组的性别比最高，在农村地区达到峰值 126（95% 置信区间为 125 至 126）。 1-4岁年龄段性别比超过130的省份有6个。一胎出生时的性别比接近正常水平，但二胎出生时的性别比急剧上升，特别是在农村地区，达到了 146 人（143 比 149）。有9个省份二胎出生率超过160。如果第一个孩子是女孩，则允许农村居民生第二个孩子的省份性别比例最高。性别选择性流产几乎占所有多余的男性。独生子女政策的一个特殊变体是，如果第一个孩子是女孩，就允许生第二个孩子，这导致了最高的性别比。结论 2005年，我国20岁以下男性多于女性3200万以上，男孩多生110万多。未来二十年，中国的育龄人口性别比将非常高且不断恶化。执行现有的性别选择性堕胎禁令可能会导致比率正常化。
Objectives To elucidate current trends and geographical patterns in the sex ratio at birth and in the population aged under 20 in China and to determine the roles played by sex selective abortion and the one child policy. Design Analysis of household based cross sectional population survey done in November 2005. Setting All of China’s 2861 counties. Population 1% of the total population, selected to be broadly representative of the total. Main outcome measure Sex ratio defined as males per 100 females. Results 4 764 512 people under the age of 20 were included. Overall sex ratios were high across all age groups and residency types, but they were highest in the 1-4 years age group, peaking at 126 (95% confidence interval 125 to 126) in rural areas. Six provinces had sex ratios of over 130 in the 1-4 age group. The sex ratio at birth was close to normal for first order births but rose steeply for second order births, especially in rural areas, where it reached 146 (143 to 149). Nine provinces had ratios of over 160 for second order births. The highest sex ratios were seen in provinces that allow rural inhabitants a second child if the first is a girl. Sex selective abortion accounts for almost all the excess males. One particular variant of the one child policy, which allows a second child if the first is a girl, leads to the highest sex ratios. Conclusions In 2005 males under the age of 20 exceeded females by more than 32 million in China, and more than 1.1 million excess births of boys occurred. China will see very high and steadily worsening sex ratios in the reproductive age group over the next two decades. Enforcing the existing ban on sex selective abortion could lead to normalisation of the ratios.
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