Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards.

Evolution of vulnerability of communities facing repeated hazards.
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DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0182719
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发表时间:
2017
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Igusa T
Igusa T
中科院分区:
综合性期刊3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Reilly AC;Guikema SD;Zhu L;Igusa T

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个人在从反复出现的危险中恢复和适应时所做的决定会影响一个地区在未来危险中的脆弱性。因此,社区脆弱性不是一种静态属性,而是一种动态属性,依赖于对反复发生的危险和损害的行为反应。本文首次建立了一个框架,以解决重复灾害、区域损害、减灾决策和社区脆弱性之间复杂的相互作用。该框架使研究人员和区域规划者能够可视化和量化社区如何随着时间的推移在各种行为情景下应对反复发生的危险。本文以马里兰州安妮阿伦德尔县的包裹级数据为例,说明了该方法,并说明了个人选择和地区脆弱性之间的相互作用是如何受到该地区飓风经历的影响的。
The decisions that individuals make when recovering from and adapting to repeated hazards affect a region’s vulnerability in future hazards. As such, community vulnerability is not a static property but rather a dynamic property dependent on behavioral responses to repeated hazards and damage. This paper is the first of its kind to build a framework that addresses the complex interactions between repeated hazards, regional damage, mitigation decisions, and community vulnerability. The framework enables researchers and regional planners to visualize and quantify how a community could evolve over time in response to repeated hazards under various behavioral scenarios. An illustrative example using parcel-level data from Anne Arundel County, Maryland—a county that experiences fairly frequent hurricanes—is presented to illustrate the methodology and to demonstrate how the interplay between individual choices and regional vulnerability is affected by the region’s hurricane experience.
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