COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks.
COVID-19 lockdown induces disease-mitigating structural changes in mobility networks.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012326117
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发表时间：
2020-12-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Brockmann D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schlosser F;Maier BF;Jack O;Hinrichs D;Zachariae A;Brockmann D
在COVID-19大流行期间，流动限制已被证明是许多国家的有效缓解策略。为了在今后更有效地应用这些措施，重要的是要详细了解其效果。在这项研究中，我们使用移动的电话数据来揭示大流行期间德国移动性的深刻结构变化。我们发现，长途旅行的大幅减少使流动性更加本地化，使得该国偏远地区的联系变得更少。我们证明，由于这种连通性的丧失，传染病的空间传播速度可以减慢。我们的研究为政策制定者和未来的研究提供了对流动限制的复杂影响的重要见解。COVID-19疫情爆发后，多个国家实施遏制措施以减少疾病传播。利用数字数据来源进行的研究表明，在多个国家，个人的流动性有效减少。然而，目前尚不清楚这些减少是否导致了移动网络更深层次的结构变化，以及这些变化如何影响网络上的动态过程。在这里，我们使用移动的手机用户的移动数据来表明，在德国的移动性不仅大大减少：锁定措施造成了重大和长期的结构变化的移动网络。我们发现，长途旅行大大减少。远程网络连接的削减导致了一个更加本地化的集群网络，并缓和了“小世界”效应。我们证明，这些结构的变化有相当大的影响，流行病传播过程中的“平坦化”的流行曲线，并推迟传播到地理上遥远的地区。
During the COVID-19 pandemic, mobility restrictions have proved to be an effective mitigation strategy in many countries. To apply these measures more efficiently in the future, it is important to understand their effects in detail. In this study, we use mobile phone data to uncover profound structural changes in mobility in Germany during the pandemic. We find that a strong reduction of long-distance travel rendered mobility to be more local, such that distant parts of the country became less connected. We demonstrate that due to this loss of connectivity, infectious diseases can be slowed down in their spatial spread. Our study provides important insights into the complex effects of mobility restrictions for policymakers and future research. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries implemented containment measures to reduce disease transmission. Studies using digital data sources show that the mobility of individuals was effectively reduced in multiple countries. However, it remains unclear whether these reductions caused deeper structural changes in mobility networks and how such changes may affect dynamic processes on the network. Here we use movement data of mobile phone users to show that mobility in Germany has not only been reduced considerably: Lockdown measures caused substantial and long-lasting structural changes in the mobility network. We find that long-distance travel was reduced disproportionately strongly. The trimming of long-range network connectivity leads to a more local, clustered network and a moderation of the “small-world” effect. We demonstrate that these structural changes have a considerable effect on epidemic spreading processes by “flattening” the epidemic curve and delaying the spread to geographically distant regions.
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影响因子：
44.1
作者：
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo;Castellano, Claudio;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Brockmann, Dirk;Helbing, Dirk
通讯作者：
Helbing, Dirk
DOI：
10.3961/jpmph.20.076
发表时间：
2020-05-01
期刊：
Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi
影响因子：
--
作者：
Alimohamadi, Yousef;Taghdir, Maryam;Sepandi, Mojtaba
通讯作者：
Sepandi, Mojtaba
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chinazzi, Matteo;Davis, Jessica T.;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Moukarzel, CF
通讯作者：
Moukarzel, CF