Global Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Mortality From 1980 Through 2013 and Predictions for 2017.
Global Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Mortality From 1980 Through 2013 and Predictions for 2017.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cgh.2016.05.034
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发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bosetti C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lucas AL;Malvezzi M;Carioli G;Negri E;La Vecchia C;Boffetta P;Bosetti C
胰腺癌是癌症死亡的主要原因，近年来死亡率没有下降。我们试图确定胰腺癌死亡率的全球趋势。我们从世界卫生组织的数据库中获得了1980年至2013年59个国家的胰腺癌死亡数据。计算了所有年龄段的人和35-64岁的人的年龄标准化死亡率；对于选定的国家，是针对25-49岁的人计算的。联结点回归模型用于确定死亡率的显著变化。对于选定的较大国家，我们预测了2017年的死亡人数和死亡率。1980年至2013年间，欧盟（EU）、南欧和东欧、巴西、日本和韩国男性胰腺癌总死亡率上升。在大多数北欧国家、澳大利亚、加拿大、墨西哥和美国，总体胰腺癌死亡率下降。在妇女中，欧盟、巴西、美国、日本和大韩民国的死亡率上升，但加拿大和墨西哥的死亡率下降。2012年，东欧和日本的胰腺癌死亡率最高，无论男女。在25-49岁的男性中，欧盟、美国、日本和大多数欧洲大国的死亡率有所下降。根据我们的数据，我们预测2017年欧盟和美国男性的总体胰腺癌死亡率将趋于平稳，但在日本会上升。在妇女方面，除美国外，大多数国家的死亡率将继续上升；预计增幅最大的是日本。近年来，胰腺癌的死亡率并没有像其他癌症那样下降。一个明显的例外是25-49岁男子死亡率下降，这可能表明目前全球上升趋势出现逆转。
Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer mortality and mortality has not decreased in recent years. We sought to determine global trends in pancreatic cancer mortality. We derived data on deaths from pancreatic cancer from the World Health Organization database for 59 countries, from 1980 through 2013. Age-standardized mortalities were computed for persons of all ages and for persons 35–64 years old; for selected countries, they were computed for persons 25–49 years old. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality. For selected larger countries, we predicted numbers of deaths and mortality for 2017. Between 1980 and 2013, overall pancreatic cancer mortality in men increased in the European Union (EU), as well as in southern and eastern Europe, Brazil, Japan, and Republic of Korea. Overall pancreatic cancer mortality decreased in most northern European countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and the United States (US). In women, mortality increased in the EU, Brazil, US, Japan, and Republic of Korea but decreased in Canada and Mexico. In 2012, Eastern Europe and Japan had the highest pancreatic cancer mortality, for both sexes. In men 25–49 years old, mortality decreased in the EU, US, Japan, and most large European countries. Based on our data, we predict overall pancreatic cancer mortality in 2017 to level off in men in the EU and US, but increase in Japan. In women, mortality will continue to increase in most countries except the US; the greatest increase is predicted to occur in Japan. Mortality from pancreatic cancer has not decreased as it has for other cancers in recent years. A notable exception is a decrease in mortality in men 25–49 years old, which could indicate a reversal in the current increasing global trends.
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影响因子：
50.5
作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Bertuccio, P.;Negri, E.
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
影响因子：
50.5
作者：
Malvezzi, M.;Bertuccio, P.;Negri, E.
通讯作者：
Negri, E.
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Duell, Eric J.
通讯作者：
Duell, Eric J.
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Ben, Qiwen;Xu, Maojin;Li, Zhaoshen
通讯作者：
Li, Zhaoshen
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Bosetti, Cristina;Bertuccio, Paola;Boffetta, Paolo
通讯作者：
Boffetta, Paolo