A differential effect of Indian ocean dipole and El Niño on cholera dynamics in Bangladesh.
A differential effect of Indian ocean dipole and El Niño on cholera dynamics in Bangladesh.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0060001
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Moji K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashizume M;Chaves LF;Faruque AS;Yunus M;Streatfield K;Moji K
人们普遍认为厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和孟加拉国的霍乱流行之间存在固定(即，随时间变化不变)的联系。然而，与霍乱传播相关的当地气候要素是否在不同时间尺度上的动态上具有固定的IOD特征仍不清楚。在这里，我们报告了各种偏远和当地环境驱动因素与孟加拉国霍乱发病率之间的时间变化关系的结果。我们进行了交叉小波相关性分析，以检查达卡和MatLab医院(1983-2008)每月霍乱病例与IOD和ENSO指数之间的关联模式。我们的结果表明，在研究期间，IOD和ENSO与霍乱住院之间的关联强度随着时间尺度的变化而变化。在达卡，1988-1997年霍乱与IOD指数之间存在长达4年的相关周期。在Matlab中，ENSO的影响更占主导地位，而没有证据表明IOD对霍乱住院治疗的影响。我们的结果呼吁在霍乱流行预警系统中考虑霍乱住院和气候因素之间的非平稳、可能是非线性的关联模式。
A stationary (i.e., constant through time) association between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and epidemics of cholera in Bangladesh has been widely assumed. However, whether or not elements of the local climate that are relevant for cholera transmission have stationary signatures of the IOD on their dynamics over different time scales is still not clear. Here we report results on the time-varying relationships between the various remote and local environmental drivers and cholera incidence in Bangladesh. We performed a cross wavelet coherency analysis to examine patterns of association between monthly cholera cases in the hospitals in Dhaka and Matlab (1983–2008) and indices for both IOD and ENSO. Our results showed that the strength of both the IOD and ENSO associations with cholera hospitalizations changed across time scales during the study period. In Dhaka, 4-year long coherent cycles were observed between cholera and the index of IOD in 1988–1997. In Matlab, the effect of ENSO was more dominant while there was no evidence for an IOD effect on cholera hospitalizations. Our results call for the consideration of non-stationary, possibly non-linear, patterns of association between cholera hospitalizations and climatic factors in cholera epidemic early warning systems.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cazelles B;Chavez M;McMichael AJ;Hales S
通讯作者：
Hales S
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Hashizume, Masahiro;Chaves, Luis Fernando;Minakawa, Noboru
通讯作者：
Minakawa, Noboru
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ashok, K;Guan, ZY;Yamagata, T
通讯作者：
Yamagata, T
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Hong, Chi-Cherng;Lu, Mong-Ming;Kanamitsu, Masao
通讯作者：
Kanamitsu, Masao
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Ajayamohan, R. S.;Rao, Suryachandra A.
通讯作者：
Rao, Suryachandra A.