Optimizing desalination for regional water systems: Integrating uncertainty, quality, and sustainability
Optimizing desalination for regional water systems: Integrating uncertainty, quality, and sustainability
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优化区域水系统的海水淡化：整合不确定性、质量和可持续性
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137785
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Sela, Lina
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hendrickson, Greg;Housh, Mashor;Sela, Lina
由于在水资源短缺的情况下需求不断增加，全世界干旱地区的区域供水系统面临着越来越大的挑战。对沿海地区来说，增加海水淡化作为替代水源可以避免对系统的需求和对自然资源的水文投入所产生的不确定性。为了有效地将海水淡化集成到供水系统中，水资源管理人员利用优化模型来解决海水淡化和自然资源的最佳组合，以满足消费者对足够水质的需求，同时保持自然资源的可持续水平。由于海水淡化厂业主和水管理人员之间的合同限制，海水淡化生产决策在不确定性出现之前的年初发生，因此增加了管理面临不确定性的供水系统的数量和质量的复杂性。为了将决策的时间表和顺序之间的不一致，其中的不确定性被发现，一个两阶段的优化方法被利用，其中管理决策被分割成可实施的决策表示的海水淡化生产量，和追索权的决定，代表供应量从其余的来源和供水网络中的水分配。然后进行迭代过程，其中在第一阶段中，解决了潜在的不确定情况下的可实施的决策，然后引入到第二阶段作为输入，在第二阶段中，对新的不确定情况下的追索权决策进行迭代求解。该框架适用于以色列国家供水系统，在面对不确定性的管理混合盐度源和异步决策时间表的独特挑战得到解决。然后应用多准则决策分析方法，在脱盐的前期投资和预期的系统运行成本和故障鲁棒性之间找到权衡。包括多准则决策分析，分析多个海水淡化生产的替代品允许包括利益相关者的偏好，基于模型的决策。
Regional water supply systems in arid regions worldwide face growing challenges due to increasing demands under conditions of water scarcity. For coastal regions, the addition of seawater desalination as an alternative water source can hedge against uncertainty stemming from demands placed on the system and hydrological inputs to the natural resources. In order to effectively integrate desalination into a water supply system, water managers utilize optimization models that solve for the optimal mix of desalination and natural resources to meet consumer demands at a sufficient water quality while maintaining sustainable levels in the natural resources. The complexity of managing both quantity and quality for a water supply system facing uncertainties is increased by contractual limitations between desalination plant owners and water managers that dictate the desalination production decisions to occur at the start of the year before the uncertainties have been revealed. To incorporate the misalignment between decision timelines and the order in which the uncertainty is revealed, a two-stage optimization approach is utilized where management decisions are split into implementable decisions representing the desalination production volumes, and recourse decisions representing supply volumes from the remaining sources and water allocations in the supply network. An iterative process is then undertaken in which in the first stage the implementable decisions are solved for potential uncertain scenarios, and then introduced to the second stage as inputs where the recourse decisions are iteratively solved for new uncertain scenarios. This framework is applied to the Israeli national water supply system, where the unique challenges of managing mixed salinity sources and asynchronous decision timelines in the face of uncertainty are addressed. A multicriteria decision analysis method is then applied where tradeoffs are found between the upfront investment in desalination and the expected system operational cost and robustness to failure. The inclusion of multicriteria decision analysis to analyze the multiple desalination production alternatives allows for including stakeholders preferences in model-based decision-making.
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