An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.
An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0088463
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ovalle O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baca M;Läderach P;Haggar J;Schroth G;Ovalle O
中美洲区域被认为是世界上最易受气候变化影响的地区之一。我们制定了一个框架，在区域和地方层面上量化中美洲咖啡种植者生计的脆弱性，并确定适应战略。根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（气专委）的概念，脆弱性被界定为受影响程度、敏感性和适应能力的综合。为了量化暴露，根据历史气候数据和墨西哥、危地马拉、萨尔瓦多和尼加拉瓜咖啡种植区的位置，通过生态位建模预测了咖啡和其他作物气候适宜性的变化。未来气候预测是由19个全球环流模式产生的。焦点小组被用来确定9个指标的敏感性和11个指标的适应能力，这是通过半结构化的采访558咖啡生产商进行了评估。然后将接触、敏感性和适应能力浓缩为脆弱性指数，并在参与性研讨会上确定适应战略。模型预测，所有目标国家种植阿拉比卡咖啡的气候适宜性都将下降，萨尔瓦多的适宜性损失最大，墨西哥的损失最小。高度脆弱性是由于气候不适合咖啡生产造成的，而高度敏感性是由于产量变化和劳动力向外迁移造成的。此外，收获后基础设施差，在某些情况下难以获得信贷，社会组织水平低，证明适应能力低。然而，造成脆弱性的具体因素在国家、城市和家庭之间差异很大，因此很难确定总的趋势。因此，需要灵活的适应战略。家庭需要政府和专门研究气候变化影响的机构的支持，并需要加强农民组织，以便能够根据当地的需要和条件调整适应战略。
The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Gay, C.;Estrada, F.;Villers, L.
通讯作者：
Villers, L.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Haggar, Jeremy;Medina, Byron;Munoz, Claudia
通讯作者：
Munoz, Claudia
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Eakin, Hallie;Bojorquez-Tapia, Luis A.;Haggar, Jeremy
通讯作者：
Haggar, Jeremy