Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems.
Human Error Probability Assessment During Maintenance Activities of Marine Systems.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.shaw.2017.06.008
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Garaniya V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Islam R;Khan F;Abbassi R;Garaniya V
船上的维护操作要求很高。维护操作是在具有挑战性和不断变化的条件下需要高度人机交互的密集活动。不断变化的条件是天气条件、工作场所温度、船舶运动、噪音和振动以及工作量和压力。例如，极端天气条件影响海员的工作，增加了出错的可能性，因此可能造成人员伤亡。为了更好地管理船上维修，需要一个有效的人误概率模型。开发的模型将有助于制定和维持有效的风险管理协议。因此，本研究的目的是建立一个考虑影响海员绩效的各种内部和外部因素的人因失误概率模型。将概率论应用于贝叶斯网络，建立了人误概率模型。该模型使用通过对超过200名经验超过5年的有经验海员进行的问卷调查获得的数据进行了测试。在这项研究中开发的模型是用来找出特定的维修活动的人的性能的可靠性。以轮机部的冷却水泵和甲板部的锚机为例，对该方法进行了验证。在所考虑的案例研究中，估计了各种情况下的人为错误概率，并将结果与不同海员类别的情况进行了比较。两个部门的案例研究的结果进行了比较。所开发的模型是有效的，在评估人为错误的概率。这些概率将在新信息可用时动态更新，训练、经验和疲劳）或外部（即，环境和操作条件，例如天气条件、工作场所温度、船舶运动、噪声和振动以及工作负荷和压力）因素。
Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man–machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue) or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions such as weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress) factors.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Hystad, Sigurd W.;Eid, Jarle
通讯作者：
Eid, Jarle
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Noroozi, Alireza;Khakzad, Nima;Abbassi, Rouzbeh
通讯作者：
Abbassi, Rouzbeh
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
Abbassi, Rouzbeh;Khan, Faisal;Hossain, Khandoker Abul
通讯作者：
Hossain, Khandoker Abul
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Islam, Rabiul;Yu, Hongyang;Khan, Faisal
通讯作者：
Khan, Faisal
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Musharraf, Mashrura;Hassan, Junaid;Imtiaz, Syed
通讯作者：
Imtiaz, Syed