Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012002117
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发表时间：
2020-10-20
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xu B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li R;Chen B;Zhang T;Ren Z;Song Y;Xiao Y;Hou L;Cai J;Xu B;Li M;Chan KKY;Tu Y;Yang M;Yang J;Liu Z;Shen C;Wang C;Xu L;Liu Q;Bao S;Zhang J;Bi Y;Bai Y;Deng K;Zhang W;Huang W;Whittington JD;Stenseth NC;Guan D;Gong P;Xu B
通过将气候的季节性与不断变化的人类行为联系起来，我们证明了全球共同努力，迅速和密集的干预对于应对未来的新冠肺炎大流行浪潮是至关重要的。我们建议，这种合作可以在人口密度和国际旅行通常较高的地点开始，然后是其他高风险地点。我们相信，这种分级干预策略可以极大地整合全球的努力，对于提高对新冠肺炎和其他许多传染病的全球应急响应是有效和实用的。越来越多的证据表明，新冠肺炎将在未来几年复兴。因此，从广泛、综合的角度优化应急规划至关重要。我们开发了一个数学模型，将气候驱动的社区传播变化和运动调制的新冠肺炎空间扩散纳入各种干预情景。我们发现，以减少当地传播率和国际旅行为目标的8周强化干预措施是有效和有效的。实际上，我们建议分阶段实施这一战略，首先在我们所称的全球干预中心的地点实施干预措施，然后在次要的高风险地点及时实施干预措施。我们认为，从全球角度考虑，在中心辐射式干预网络中对地点进行分类，并在当地采取行动，在高风险地区进行干预，是一种有效的战略，可以避免否则将给公共卫生和社会带来巨大负担。
By linking seasonality of climate and changing human behavior, we demonstrate that collaboration on global efforts for prompt and intensive intervention is fundamental to coping with future pandemic waves of COVID-19. We propose that this collaboration can be started in locations with typically high population density and international travel, followed by other high-risk locations. We believe this tiered intervention strategy can greatly integrate global efforts and is effective and practical to improve the global emergency response to COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases. Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2002616117
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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