Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City.
Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 incidence and deaths in New York City.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.11.006
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Umpaichitra V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fathi-Kazerooni S;Rojas-Cessa R;Dong Z;Umpaichitra V
在这篇论文中，我们显示了纽约大都会交通管理局提供的纽约市（NYC）地铁的旋转栅门入口数据与纽约市卫生局报告的2020年3月至5月的COVID-19死亡和病例之间的强相关性。这种相关性是通过线性回归获得的，并通过长短期记忆神经网络对死亡人数的预测得到证实。在考虑了这种疾病的潜伏期和症状阶段后，相关性更加显着，因为死于这种疾病的人经历了这些阶段。我们亦就报告的死亡及病例使用自回归综合移动平均模型估计COVID-19死亡及病例数目接近零的日期。我们还向后预测了第一个病例和死亡可能发生的日期。
In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed by the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is more significant after considering incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from it. We extend the analysis to each individual NYC borough. We also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and cases. We also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths might have occurred.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
通讯作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Guan, W.;Ni, Z.;Zhong, N.
通讯作者：
Zhong, N.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Kuniya, Toshikazu
通讯作者：
Kuniya, Toshikazu
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
Chakraborty, Tanujit;Ghosh, Indrajit
通讯作者：
Ghosh, Indrajit