The allocation problem of electric car-sharing system: A data-driven approach
The allocation problem of electric car-sharing system: A data-driven approach
复制标题
电动汽车共享系统的分配问题：数据驱动的方法
DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2019.11.021
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Guizhen Yu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiang Huo;Xinkai Wu;Ming Li;Nan Zheng;Guizhen Yu
汽车共享是一种新兴的交通模式，随着电动汽车（EV）的应用越来越多。单向电动汽车共享系统（ECS）的重要问题之一是车辆分布不平衡和搬迁成本高。为了提高其效率和整体利润，本研究提出了一个数据驱动的优化模型，考虑需求的不确定性。首先，从ECS公司的大量历史订单数据进行分析，以表征车辆的动态和用户的行为特征。一个重要的观察结果是，用户的日常需求，即，拾取量遵循泊松分布;到达率随时间变化，表现出四个主要的时间阶段。基于这一观察，本研究构建的ECS重新分配问题的数据驱动的优化模型，这是一个组合的概率期望模型和线性规划问题的实时数据作为输入。更重要的是，与现有研究不同，本研究将利润表述为离散随机变量的数学期望，且消费者需求不确定。这使得能够全面考虑所有可能的未来需求。此外，由于电动汽车是本文研究的重点，在所提出的模型中考虑了续驶里程约束。提出了一种线性求解方法，以获得全局最优解。最后，利用30个ECS台站的真实的数据对模型进行了验证。研究结果表明，该系统的利润日增长率最高可达19.05%，平均为10.16%。
Car-sharing is an emerging transportation mode with increasing applications of electric vehicles (EVs). One of the important issues for one-way electric car-sharing systems (ECS) is unbalanced vehicle distributions and high relocation costs. To improve its efficiency and overall profit, this research proposes a data-driven optimization model with the consideration of demand uncertainty. Firstly, a large amount of historical order data from an ECS company are analyzed to characterize the dynamics of the vehicles and the behavioral features of the users. An important observation is that the daily demand by users, i.e., pick-ups, follows Poisson distribution; and the arrival rates vary across time exhibiting four major temporal stages. Based on this observation, this research constructs the ECS reallocation problem as a data-driven optimization model which is a combination of a probability expectation model and a linear programming problem with real-time data as input. More importantly, different from existing research, this research formulates the profit as the mathematical expectation of a discrete random variable with uncertain consumer demands. This allows for a comprehensive consideration of all possible future demands. Furthermore, driving range constraint has been considered in the proposed model as EV is the focus of this paper. A linear solution method is proposed to obtain the global optimal. At the end, the model is validated using real data from 30 ECS stations. The results indicate the daily improvement of profit could be as high as 19.05% with an average of 10.16%.
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