Temporal trends and climatic factors associated with bacterial enteric diseases in Vietnam, 1991-2001.
Temporal trends and climatic factors associated with bacterial enteric diseases in Vietnam, 1991-2001.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.9658
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发表时间：
2008-01
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Miller MA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kelly-Hope LA;Alonso WJ;Thiem VD;Canh DG;Anh DD;Lee H;Miller MA
在越南，志贺氏菌病/痢疾、伤寒和霍乱是重要的肠道疾病。为了更好地了解其流行病学，我们确定了越南八个地区与高风险期相关的时间趋势、季节模式和气候因素。我们根据国家监测数据（1991-2001）量化了每个地区的每月病例和发病率（IR）。高疾病期和低疾病期是根据最高和最低 IR（高于和低于平均值 1 个 SD）和阳性异常值的爆发（1 个月内高于 4 个 SD 或连续 2 个月以上高于 2 个 SD）来定义的。我们使用一般线性模型来比较高风险期和低风险期之间的降水量、温度和湿度。志贺菌病/痢疾广泛存在，在研究期间增加了 2.5 倍，平均 IR 在 6 月至 8 月期间最高（2.1/100,000–26.2/100,000）。伤寒是湄公河三角洲的地方病，并于 20 世纪 90 年代中期出现在西北地区，高峰期为 4 月至 8 月（0.38-8.6）。 5 月至 11 月期间，霍乱主要在中部沿海流行（0.07-2.7），然后从 1997 年起在全国范围内急剧下降。仅在疾病高发期和低发期之间发现了显着的气候差异。我们能够定义 4 起志贺氏菌病/痢疾、14 起伤寒和 8 起霍乱疫情，地理时间重叠极小，且没有显着的气候关联。在越南，细菌性肠道疾病具有明显的时间趋势和季节性模式。气候在确定疾病高发期和低发期方面发挥着重要作用，但它似乎并不是影响疫情爆发的重要因素。
In Vietnam, shigellosis/dysentery, typhoid fever, and cholera are important enteric diseases. To better understand their epidemiology, we determined temporal trends, seasonal patterns, and climatic factors associated with high risk periods in eight regions across Vietnam. We quantified monthly cases and incidence rates (IR) for each region from national surveillance data (1991–2001). High- and low-disease periods were defined from the highest and lowest IRs (1 SD above and below the mean) and from outbreaks from positive outliers (4 SDs higher in 1 month or 2 SDs higher in ≥ 2 consecutive months). We used general linear models to compare precipitation, temperature, and humidity between high- and low-risk periods. Shigellosis/dysentery was widespread and increased 2.5 times during the study period, with the highest average IRs found between June and August (2.1/100,000–26.2/100,000). Typhoid fever was endemic in the Mekong River Delta and emerged in the Northwest in the mid-1990s, with peaks between April and August (0.38–8.6). Cholera was mostly epidemic along the central coast between May and November (0.07–2.7), and then decreased dramatically nationwide from 1997 onward. Significant climate differences were found only between high- and low-disease periods. We were able to define 4 shigellosis/dysentery, 14 typhoid fever, and 8 cholera outbreaks, with minimal geotemporal overlap and no significant climatic associations. In Vietnam, bacterial enteric diseases have distinct temporal trends and seasonal patterns. Climate plays a role in defining high- and low-disease periods, but it does not appear to be an important factor influencing outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.1181
发表时间：
2005-05-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Mitchell, TD;Jones, PD
通讯作者：
Jones, PD
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Koelle, K;Rod贸, X;Mostafa, G
通讯作者：
Mostafa, G
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2000.62.644
发表时间：
2000-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Lin, FYC;Ho, VA;Robbins, JB
通讯作者：
Robbins, JB
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2007.76.706
发表时间：
2007-04-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Kelly-Hope, Louise A.;Alonso, Wladimir J.;Miller, Mark A.
通讯作者：
Miller, Mark A.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Huq, A;Sack, RB;Colwell, RR
通讯作者：
Colwell, RR