A new flood design methodology for a variable and changing climate

澳大利亚降雨量的极端时空变化影响到水资源的数量和质量、农业系统的生产力以及水生和陆地生态系统。鉴于洪水等极端事件的影响以及对与水有关的基础设施的大量投资，对这些风险的评估是一个具有国家经济和环境意义的问题。蒙特卡罗模拟技术将量化与当前和未来气候变化相关的风险，以及来自多个来源的综合风险，如沿海潮汐和风暴径流。本研究将提供一个新的空间框架，计算风险以及工具，以评估洪水风险。

The extreme temporal and spatial variability of Australia's rainfall affects the quantity and quality of water resources, the productivity of agricultural systems, and aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Given the impact of extreme events such as floods and the massive investment in water-related infrastructure, evaluation of these risks is an issue of national economic and environmental significance. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will quantify the risks associated with current and future climate change, and the combined risks that come from multiple sources, such as from coastal tides and storm runoff. This research will provide a new spatial framework for calculating risk as well as tools to evaluate flood risk.