Non-Poissonian Characteristics of Earthquakes and Their Implications on Optimal Design of Structures

这项研究的目标是开发最优的抗震设计程序，将目前关于地震现象的知识纳入其中。选择了三个地震活跃区进行研究。其中包括Mixico俯冲带、阿拉斯加俯冲带和加利福尼亚州板间边界地区(例如，圣安德烈亚斯断裂带)。(1)回顾和分析了每个区域的数据，特别是大地震的时空图象和断层机制；(2)建立了反映地震事件的时间和空间相关性的随机非泊松模型；(3)将发生模型与适当的地面运动模型相结合，得到了强度特定的危险性估计；(4)通过对三个研究区域内特定场地的应用，论证了地震发生和场地危险性估计模型的可行性；以及(5)制定了考虑地震发生的非泊松性质、场地地震动估计模型中的不确定性以及特定设计的收益、成本和损失的优化设计程序。

The goal of this research is to develop optimal earthquake-resistant design procedures that incorporate the current state of knowledge regarding the earthquake phenomenon. Three seismically active regions are selected for the study. These include the Mixico subduction zone, the Alaskan subduction zone, and California interplate boundary regions (e.g., the San Andreas fault zone). The following studies are performed: (1) the data for each region is reviewed and analyzed; in particular, for the temporal and spatial pattern and fault mevhanisms of large earthquakes; (2) a stochastic non-Poissonian model is developed to reflect the temporal and spatial dependence of earthquake events; (3) the occurrence model is combined with appropriate ground motion model to obtain sity specific hazard estimates; (4) the feasibility of the occurrence and site hazard estimation models is demonstrated through application to specific sites within the three study regions; and, (5) optimal design procedures are developed that consider the non-Poissonian nature of the earthquake occurrences, the uncertainties in the site ground motion estimation models, and the benefits, costs, and losses for a particular design.