Earthquake Recurrence Analysis: Micro-Scale Diffusion Models of Stress Evolution Along a Fault

本奖项是根据AD/ENG公告\n号的规定作出的。85-25，“小说研究加急奖”本研究项目将探索一种新的概念，有望在地震灾害的工程评估中取得重大进展。这个概念涉及到一种模拟断层上应力积累和释放的新方法，即模拟地震波的产生。随机地震重现模型提供未来地震事件的关键信息，即发生的位置、震级和时间。本研究计划的目的是发展更现实的基于物理的工程递归模型。本文将探讨新的沿断层应力演化扩散（马尔可夫）随机场模型在时间和空间上的可行性和实用性。要研究的具体分析技术包括扩散过程结果的概化，以估计关键的复发统计-事件时间，大小和位置，从简单的空间特征，如滑移率和材料特性的时空波动的尺度。首席研究员在概率结构工程方面的研究是国际公认的，他非常有资格承担这个探索性的研究项目。除了在学术上取得优异的研究成绩外，他还积极参与这项研究的实施，特别是在核电站地震危险性评估方面。这项为期一年的研究如果成功，将为地震危险性评估提供新的重要工具。

This award is made according to the provision in AD/ENG Bulletin \no. 85-25, "Expedited Awards for Novel Research." This research program will explore a new concept which promises to be a major step forward in the engineering assessment of seismic hazard. This concept concerns a new approach to modelling the accumulation and release of stress on a fault, that is, to modelling the generation of seismic waves. Stochastic earthquake recurrence models provide key information on future seismic events, namely location, magnitude and time of occurrence. The aim of this research program is to develop more realistic physically-based engineering recurrence models. The feasibility and utility of new diffusion (Markov) random field models of stress evolution along a fault in both time and space will be explored. Specific analysis techniques to be investigated include generalization of diffusion process results to estimate key recurrence statistics - event times, sizes, and locations from simple spatial characteristics such as slip rates and the scales of spatial and temporal fluctuations in material properties. The principal investigator is internationally recognized for his research in probabilistic structural engineering, and he is exceptionally well qualified to undertake this exploratory research program. In addition to the academic excellence of his research, he also participates actively in the implementation of this research, especially with regard to seismic hazard assessment for nuclear power plants. This one-year investigation, if successful, will provide a new and important tool for seismic hazard assessment.