Modelling Seasonal Metabolism to Detect the Response of Terrestrial Ecosystems to Climatic Change

地球气候的变化预计会很大， 迅速。 其中一个影响这些比率的反馈 变化是地球陆地生态系统的反应， 但目前尚不清楚这些反应是否在短期内 会增强或减缓二氧化碳引起的变暖。 的目标 这个项目就是要研究这个问题。 采取方法是 季节性地模拟陆地新陈代谢， 计算CO2的季节通量与CO2浓度 在大气中观察到。 该方法将在两个分辨率级别上使用。 在 粗略的分辨率，季节性代谢将模拟一个 一个单位（一个生态系统，一个地区或一个半球）。 初步结果表明，该方法是有用的，因为 例如，在区分不同的解释， 大气二氧化碳浓度的季节性幅度增加。 更详细的解决方案需要建模， 地球新陈代谢的季节性与地理细节， 并将模拟的CO2通量与观测到的季节性 和CO2浓度的地理变异性。 这 比较将使用现有的大气传输模型。 在 为准备这项全球分析，研究将比较 模拟特定地点的CO2通量，并记录环境CO2 在这些地点测量的浓度。 的假设 大气中二氧化碳浓度的信息 可以用来表明地球系统对 全球变化 该项目团队是优秀的，将在这方面的经验 研究类型，并可能产生高的结果 质量. 该项目的机构设置将提供 良好的科学互动和协同环境， 同事及相关研究。 生态系统研究计划建议， 在这三年的第一年， 奖

Changes in the earth's climate are expected to be large and rapid. One of the feedbacks that affects the rates of these changes is the response of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, but it is not clear whether in the short term these responses will enhance or retard the CO2-caused warming. The objective of this project is to examine this question. The approach is to model terrestrial metabolism seasonally and to compare the computer seasonal flux of CO2 with the concentrations of CO2 observed in the atmosphere. The approach will be used at two levels of resolution. At coarse resolution, seasonal metabolism will be modelled for a single unit (an ecosystem, a region, or a hemisphere). Preliminary results suggest that the approach is useful, for example, in distinguishing among alternative explanations for the increased seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The more detailed resolution required modelling the seasonality of the earth's metabolism with geographical detail, and will compare modelled CO2 fluxes with the observed seasonal and geographic variability of CO2 concentrations. This comparison will use an existing atmospheric transport model. In preparation for this global analysis, the research will compare modelled CO2 fluxes for specific sites with recorded ambient CO2 concentrations measured at those sites. The hypothesis throughout is that information in atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be used to suggest the response of terrestrial systems to global change. The project team is excellent and will experienced in this type of research and may be expected to produce results of high quality. The institutional setting for the project will provide excellent scientific interaction and a synergistic environment of colleagues and related research. The Ecosystem Studies Program recommends that funding be made available for the first year of this three-year continuing award.