Integrating and scaling seasonal climate-driven dengue forecasting

整合和扩展季节性气候驱动的登革热预测

• 批准号: MR/Y004663/1
• 负责人: Quillon Harpham
• 金额: $ 123.52万
• 依托单位: HR Wallingford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FY004663%2F1
• 关键词: Integrating; scaling; seasonal; climate; driven

Outbreaks of climate sensitive diseases present a major growing threat to human health, but they are predictable and maybe even preventable. The mosquito transmitted disease dengue is one of the fastest growing global infectious diseases and now causes over 400 million annual cases globally. Dengue is becoming the primary acute infectious disease threat in countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Between 2017 and 2019, Vietnam averaged over 200,000 cases every year and in Malaysia dengue fever has the highest incidence rate among any other communicable disease (398 cases per 100,000).Dengue outbreaks are preventable with existing interventions, but only if they are used in the right places at the right times. The ability to forecast disease outbreaks months in advance can reduce the burden on health services. This is important in resource-constrained Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) where they can make the difference between an effective and efficient proactive response compared to a costly and often unsuccessful reactive response. We aim to demonstrate the value of disease forecasting via a local level dengue forecasting system in Vietnam and Malaysia, which will pave the way for scale up of dengue forecasting and other digital health solutions for climate sensitive diseases.We have developed the necessary disease forecasting techniques as part of the Dengue forecasting MOdel Satellite-based System (D-MOSS) project. Although this system has been operational since July 2019 in Vietnam and July 2020 in Malaysia, more work is needed to bridge the implementation gap to ensure forecasts have direct actionable and measurable impacts on preventing outbreaks at a local level.Further research is required to establish if the forecasting techniques already in operation are capable of producing accurate forecasts at the required spatial and temporal resolutions, tailored to the practices applied by specific sectors of the health system. We will test this by co-developing new forecasts that provide advance predictions in Vietnam and Malaysia. Through a series of longitudinal workshops we will develop risk assessment protocols that link forecasts to outbreak prevention activities at different sectors of the Vietnamese and Malaysian health systems. These knowledge gaps will be addressed by a multidisciplinary team of dengue experts, modellers, public health experts, software engineers and early warning systems experts from multiple institutes in Vietnam, Malaysia and the UK. Training and co-design of the research is central to all aspects of our proposal and we intend to leverage the equitable partnerships established as part of the D-MOSS project to meet our aims. Cross-cutting activities will compare and contrast the operational context in these countries and enable collaboration between them with the goal of deriving generalisable principles and specific guidelines for expansion to other countries.This research will demonstrate clear health value against dengue and other Aedes mosquito-borne diseases (e.g. chikungunya, Zika) in Vietnam and Malaysia, and a plan for how the intervention will be scaled up to other LMICs currently struggling to address the growing threat of dengue and other climate-sensitive diseases. In the longer term, this project will provide evidence on the value of forecasting to health systems for a wide range of health conditions.

气候敏感性疾病的爆发对人类健康构成了日益严重的威胁，但它们是可以预测的，甚至可能是可以预防的。蚊子传播的疾病登革热是全球增长最快的传染病之一，现在全球每年造成4亿多例病例。登革热正在成为越南和马来西亚等国家的主要急性传染病威胁。在2017年至2019年期间，越南平均每年有超过20万例登革热病例，马来西亚的登革热发病率是所有其他传染病中最高的（每10万人中有398例）。通过现有的干预措施，登革热疫情是可以预防的，但前提是在正确的时间在正确的地点使用。提前几个月预测疾病爆发的能力可以减轻卫生服务的负担。这在资源有限的中低收入国家（LMICs）中非常重要，因为它们可以在有效和高效的主动应对与昂贵且往往不成功的被动应对之间发挥作用。我们的目标是通过越南和马来西亚的地方登革热预报系统展示疾病预报的价值，这将为扩大登革热预报和其他气候敏感性疾病的数字健康解决方案铺平道路。我们已经开发了必要的疾病预报技术，作为登革热预报MOdel卫星系统（D-MOSS）项目的一部分。尽管该系统已于2019年7月在越南和2020年7月在马来西亚投入使用，但仍需开展更多工作，以弥补实施差距，确保预报对地方一级的疫情预防产生直接可操作和可衡量的影响。需要进一步研究，以确定已投入使用的预报技术是否能够以所需的空间和时间分辨率提供准确的预报，根据卫生系统具体部门的具体做法量身定制。我们将通过共同开发新的预测来测试这一点，这些预测将提供越南和马来西亚的提前预测。通过一系列纵向研讨会，我们将制定风险评估协议，将预测与越南和马来西亚卫生系统不同部门的疫情预防活动联系起来。这些知识差距将由来自越南，马来西亚和英国多个研究所的登革热专家，建模人员，公共卫生专家，软件工程师和预警系统专家组成的多学科团队解决。研究的培训和共同设计是我们建议的所有方面的核心，我们打算利用作为D-MOSS项目一部分建立的公平伙伴关系来实现我们的目标。跨领域的活动将比较和对比这些国家的业务背景，并使它们之间能够开展合作，以制定可推广到其他国家的普遍原则和具体指导方针。（例如基孔肯雅病毒、寨卡病毒），以及如何将干预措施扩大到目前正在努力应对登革热和其他气候敏感性疾病日益增长的威胁的其他中低收入国家的计划。从长远来看，这一项目将提供证据，证明预测对卫生系统的各种健康状况的价值。