A Century of New GNP Estimates

这个项目的目的是创建和分析1834-1928年期间美国国民生产总值的新估计。作为第一步，这项研究将广泛分析这一时期目前国产总值估计数的准确性。初步研究表明，这些估计大大夸大了商业周期的规模，因为在基准国民生产总值估计数之间使用了非常不稳定的生产序列。这项研究很重要，因为它将为过去和现代商业周期的性质和原因提供新的见解。此外，这项研究还将更好地理解经济如何随着时间的推移而变化，以及这些变化如何影响宏观经济表现。为了处理现有数据系列的过度波动，将使用回归程序将现有的生产数据片段转换为国民生产总值的新估计数。明确地考虑国民生产总值和内插序列之间的波动差异，将产生19世纪和20世纪的国民生产总值估计数，更准确地代表周期性运动。这个新的数据系列将用于衡量商业周期波动的大小，并估计这一时期价格的周期性行为。

The purpose of this project is to create and analyze new estimates of gross national product for the U.S. for the period 1834-1928. As a first step, the study will involve an extensive analysis of the accuracy of current GNP estimates for that period. Preliminary research suggests that the estimates greatly exaggerate the size of business cycles because very volatile production series are used to interpolate between benchmark GNP estimates. This research is important because it will provide new insights into the nature and causes of business cycles both in the past and in the modern era. Furthermore, this study will also provide a better understanding of how the economy has changed over time and how those changes affect macroeconomic performance. In order to deal with the excess volatility in the existing data series, regression procedures will be used to convert available fragments of production data into new estimates of gross national product. Explicitly accounting for the differences in volatility between GNP and the interpolating series will yield estimates of GNP for the 19th and 20th centuries that represent cyclical movements much more accurately. This new data series will be used to measure the size of business cycle fluctuations and to estimate the cyclical behavior of prices over this period.