Studies of the Structure, Dynamics, and Numerical Predictionof Mesoscale Convective Systems

暖季的定量降水预报 在历史上比在凉爽的季节要穷得多。 在很大 这是因为在温暖的季节里， 降水来源于中尺度对流系统， 目前的运作模式对这些系统的处理很差。 最近的观测和预算研究表明， 这些系统的预测将需要物理过程， 降水拖曳、融化和蒸发， 高分辨率中尺度模式 对流 与这种模式一起使用的参数化方案必须包括潮湿 下沉气流和真实的水分消散， 对流 部分拟议工作的重点是模型开发 成功模拟MCS所必需的。 第二部分着重于 使用模型作为诊断工具，以帮助理解 MCS的结构和动力学，特别是温暖的发展 “层状”区域的核心涡旋。 最后一部分 专注于观测系统模拟实验， 帮助定义观测要求（包括同化 廓线仪数据）用于了解和预测中尺度对流 系统.

Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season have historically been much poorer than in the cool season. To a large degree, this is because a sizeable fraction of warm season precipitation comes from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and these systems are poorly resolved by the current operational models. Recent observational and budget studies indicate that numerical prediction of these systems will require physical processes such as precipitation drag, melting and evaporation to be incorporated into very fine resolution mesoscale models. The convective parameterization scheme used with such models must include moist downdrafts and realistic moisture detrainment for propagating deep convection. Part of the proposed work focuses on the model development necessary to successfully simulate MCSs. A second portion focuses on the use of the model as a diagnostic tool to help understand the structure and dynamics of MCSs, particularly the development of warm core vortices in the "stratiform" region. The final portion concentrates on observing-system simulation experiments in order to help define the observational requirements (including assimilation of profiler data) for understanding and predicting mesoscale convective systems.