Prospects for Exchange Rate Stabilization

该项目是严格建模和 实证研究全球经济的表现。 的 该项目考察了三个主题：（1）可能的行为 参考汇率和目标汇率制下的汇率 区;（2）汇率大幅波动的长期影响 （3）贸易的持续发展 均衡真实的汇率的长期趋势。 八十年代汇率变动的某些方面 困惑政策制定者，挑战大量的理论， 国际金融和贸易。 为什么会有剧烈的波动 在这段时间里，美元的价值？ 更一般地说， 为什么在浮动汇率制度下， 汇率？ 为什么贸易流动的反应如此缓慢 汇率变动？ 具体来说，为什么 从1985年到现在， 对美国贸易流量的影响 最后，为什么贸易条件的 美国对日本的态度逐年恶化？ 该项目将国际经济带向新的方向， 可以回答这些问题，并提出新的政策工具， 解决美国在国际贸易和金融方面的问题。 汇率波动是通过模拟 市场参与者信念的变化可以增加 国际金融市场的动荡。 项目 在理论上发展和扩展了一个框架， 市场参与者认为当局可能会干预， 防止汇率偏离目标区 对汇率产生强大的稳定影响， 乐队 这一框架是审查 欧洲货币体系（EMS），最近的 目标区域系统。 初步工作表明， EMS在稳定欧洲市场方面取得了意想不到的成功， 汇率。 一个“滞后”模型，在这个模型中，短期冲击导致 长期影响，被用来解释为什么美国经济没有 当美元开始反弹时， 1985年下降。 美国经济的竞争力不如 现在预计，因为遭受准永久性损害时， 美元在八十年代初被高估了。 最后，供应 各国产业结构的差异 可以解释明显的长期趋势， 贸易

This project is part of an effort to rigorously model and empirically study the performance of the global economy. The project examines three subjects: (1) the likely behavior of exchange rates under a system of reference rates and target zones; (2) the long-term effects of large exchange rate movements on trade flows; and (3) the possible existence of sustained secular trends in equilibrium real exchange rates. Some aspects of movements in exchange rates during the eighties puzzle policy makers and challenge the large body of theory on international finance and trade. Why were there wild fluctations in the value of the dollar during this period? More generally, why were exchange rates so volatile under a regime of floating exchange rates? Why have trade flows been so slow to respond to exchange rate movements? Specifically, why has the sharp decline in the dollar from 1985 to the present not had more of an impact on U.S. trade flows? Finally, why do the terms of trade of the U.S. towards Japan keep deteriorating year after year? This project takes international economics in new directions that could answer these questions and suggest new policy tools for dealing with U.S. problems in international trade and finance. Exchange rate volatility is explained by modelling the way changes in the beliefs of market participants can increase the volatility of international financial markets. The project develops and extends theoretically a framework in which the belief by market participants that authorities may intervene to prevent the exchange rate from drifting outside a target zone exerts a strong stabilizing influence on exchange rates within the band. This framework is the basis for an examination of the experience with the European Monetary System (EMS), the nearest thing to a target zone system. Preliminary work suggests that the EMS has been unexpectedly successful at stabilizing European exchange rates. An "hysterisis" model, a model in which short-run shocks cause long-run effects, is used to explain why the U.S. economy did not rebound as rapidly as predicted when the dollar started to decline in 1985. The U.S. economy is not as competitive as expected now because of quasi-permanent damage suffered when the dollar was overvalued in the early eighties. Finally, supply side differences in the industrial structures among countries could explain apparent strong secular trends in the terms-of- trade.