Opportunity, Choice, and Social Control: Testing an Integrated Theory of Criminal Victimization

在过去的二十年里，出现了几种理论来解释犯罪受害的社会分布。检验这些理论对于提高我们对犯罪的理解非常重要。此外，有关犯罪控制的公共政策也取决于受害理论的有效性。例如，公民发起的预防犯罪活动，如私人安全系统和邻里街区监视，是基于对犯罪原因和犯罪和受害的空间分布的假设。不幸的是，现有数据的局限性妨碍了对相互竞争的受害理论和各种犯罪控制活动的效用进行系统研究。该项目旨在通过收集和汇编单一城市90个社区的5400名居民的多种数据来源（如人口普查、档案、警察报告、电话调查、实地观察），克服以往受害研究的局限性。这些数据将用于描述每个社区随时间的变化，在不同的分析层面（即社区、街道和个人）测试犯罪受害的结构选择理论的预测准确性，并检查个人是否从邻居的犯罪控制活动中受益。多变量建模方法允许检查一系列问题，包括流离失所或搭便车效应是否最能表征犯罪控制活动对个人受害风险的影响。这项研究将收集有关受害情况、社会控制措施、日常活动和生活方式的综合数据。以前的研究没有收集到足够多的数据来进行多层次分析，包括理论相关变量的多种测量，涉及几种观察模式，同时考虑个人和群体过程。通过对多个主要和次要数据来源的审查，本研究将提供一个独特的机会来评估当前的受害理论和犯罪控制措施的减少犯罪的好处。研究结果应对社会变革和受害理论以及减少犯罪的方案战略产生影响。

Over the last two decades, several theories have emerged to account for the social distribution of criminal victimization. Testing these theories is important to advancing our understanding of crime. In addition, public policy regarding crime control also depends on the validity of victimization theories. For example, citizen-initiated crime prevention activities such as private security systems and neighborhood block watch are based on assumptions about the causes of crime and the spatial distribution of crime and victimization. Unfortunately, limitations of existing data preclude systematic study of competing victimization theories and the utility of various crime control activities. This project is designed to overcome the limitations of previous victimization studies by collecting and compiling multiple sources of data (e.g. census, archival, police reports, telephone survey, field observation) on 5400 residents of 90 neighborhoods in a single city. These data will be used to describe changes in each neighborhood over time, test the predictive accuracy of a structural-choice theory of criminal victimization at various levels of analysis (i.e., neighborhoods, streets, and individuals), and examine whether individuals benefit from the crime control activity of their neighbors. Multivariate modeling approaches permit examining a range of issues, including whether a displacement or free rider effect best characterizes the impact of crime control activity on individuals' risks of victimization. This study will result in a comprehensive data collection on victimization, social control measures, and routine activities and lifestyles. No previous study has collected data on such issues that have a sufficient number of observations for multi- level analyses, include multiple measures of theoretically relevant variables, involve several modes of observation, and simultaneously consider individual and group processes. Through the examination of multiple primary and secondary data sources, the research will provide a unique opportunity to evaluate current victimization theories and the crime-reduction benefits of crime control measures. The results should have an impact on theories of social change and victimization as well as on programmatic strategies for crime reduction.