Comparing Divergent Views: The Sacco-Vanzetti Case

这一建议发展了一个著名的案例研究，Sacco-Vanzetti 试验，作为引入使用统计语言的工具， 对历史和政治事件的分析。的 从理论的角度来看，这个项目很有趣，因为它 能够提供关于分歧来源的见解， 使用关于事实和价值的相互矛盾的信息。 很少 知道如何在面对以下情况时进行决策分析： 对事实的相互矛盾的解释：这项建议应该摆脱一些 光在这个重要的话题。这个项目也很有趣， 应用的观点，因为它能够告知历史学家， 法律的学者关于创新和严格的方法来评估 概率和构建人们对事件的思考。 那里 很少使用结构化概率评估 解决重要的法律的和历史争端的程序： 建议书应提供有关使用贝叶斯方法的信息 在此背景下的评估程序。 这两个资格的 研究人员和这些主题的重要性表明， 该项目的结果应证明是有趣和令人鼓舞的 to researchers研究人员from a diverse不同set组of disciplines学科.

This proposal develops a well-known case study, the Sacco-Vanzetti trial, as a vehicle for introducing the use of statistical language and reasoning into the analysis of historical and political events. The project is interesting from a theoretical perspective because of its ability to offer insights about the source of a disagreement and the use conflicting information concerning facts and values. Very little is known about how to conduct decision analyses in the face of conflicting interpretations of facts: this proposal should shed some light on this important topic. The project also is interesting from an applied perspective because of its ability to inform historians and legal scholars about an innovative and rigorous approach to assessing probabilities and structuring people's thinking about events. There has been very little use of structured probability assessment procedures to settle important legal and historical disputes: this proposal should provide information about the use of Bayesian assessment procedures in this context. Both the qualifications of the investigators and the importance of these topics suggest that the results of the project should prove to be interesting and stimulating to researchers from a diverse set of disciplines.