The Decline and Resurgence of Partisanship in the House of Representatives, 1953-1988

从新政到20世纪70年代，政党投票和 众议院议员对党的忠诚度已经下降， 各位代表。 然而，自20世纪70年代以来， 党派之争的复苏，和以前的解释不预期 也无法解释最近的变化 本研究的目的是 发展了一种政党投票的理论， 衰退和复苏，并确定该理论是否 预测与现有的政治证据一致， 房子 该理论的发展始于对以下因素的关注， 一票之内影响一个成员的选择。 它建立 从那里到考虑个人的方式选择 最终会被合并到所有问题的所有投票的总和中 在整个国会。 相关因素包括： 成员的偏好，形成替代方案的制度过程 以及改变问题组合的外部或内部力量 随着时间 根据这一分析，有人认为， 党派投票取决于选举影响的变化（特别是 地区一级选民的重新组合和 双方征聘的候选人人数）， 众议院审议的问题，并在修改 制度安排，规定法案如何形成， 他们被认为是在众议院发言。 在整理数据，以确定是否理论论点是 支持，选举影响的研究将包括分析 选民对众议院候选人的议题偏好发生变化的时间 以及收集关于政治和安全问题的资料。 候选人竞争众议院提名的职位， 在过去的36年里， 对变化问题的思考 议程将包括分析众议院的所有点名， 1953年至1988年，重点是投票模式 在问题类别中保持一致。 最后，分析了 体制安排将跟踪减少的影响， 委员会主席的权力和通过新规则，以加强 党的领导人对各种替代成员面临的 地上 本研究的这一部分还考虑了以下因素的影响： 特定的政党领导人和特定的总统， 成员面临的选择。 如果国会党派之争的理论得到了 证据，它将需要在目前的重大修订， 在众议院的政治冲突的概念，其中认为政治 党是软弱的，成员与他们的关系不重要。 的 分析还将表明，如何更大的党派可以表现出， 即使政党之间的传统关系， 选民的力量越来越弱。 最后，理论将 能够具体说明可能导致 在未来的政治体制中或多或少的党派之争。

From the New Deal through the 1970s, levels of party voting and of party loyalty had declined among members of the House of Representatives. Since the 1970s, however, there has been a sharp resurgence of partisanship, and previous explanations do not anticipate or account for this recent change. The objective of this research is to develop a theory of party voting which explains both partisan decline and resurgence, and to determine whether the theory's predictions are consistent with available evidence on politics in the House. The development of the theory begins with a focus on the factors that influence the choice of a single member on a single vote. It builds from there to a consideration of the way choices of individuals eventually are combined into the aggregate of all votes on all issues within an entire Congress. The relevant factors include influences on members' preferences, institutional processes that shape alternatives for choice, and outside or inside forces that vary the mix of issues over time. Based on this analysis, it is argued that the variations in partisan voting depend on changes in electoral influences (particularly realignment of voters at the district level and changes in the kinds of candidates recruited by the two parties), on changes in the agenda of issues considered by the House, and on alterations of the institutional arrangements that govern how bills are shaped and how they are considered on the House floor. In marshalling data to determine whether the theoretical arguments are supported, the study of electoral influences will include analysis over time of changes in the issue preferences of voters for House candidates of the two parties, and collection of information on the political positions of candidates competing for House nominations within each party over the last 36 years. The consideration of the changing issue agenda will include analysis of all roll calls on the House floor from 1953 through 1988, focusing on the degree to which voting patterns remain consistent within issue categories. Finally, the analysis of institutional arrangements will trace the impact of decreases in the power of committee chairmen and the adoption of new rules to strengthen party leaders on the kinds of alternatives members are faced with on the floor. This segment of the study also considers the influence of particular party leaders and particular presidents on the kinds of choices members confronted. If the theory of congressional partisanship is supported by the evidence, it will require a significant revision in the current conceptions of political conflict in the House, which regard political parties to be weak and member ties to them of little importance. The analysis will also show how greater partisanship can be exhibited by elected representatives even when traditional ties between parties and voters are growing progressively weaker. Finally, the theory will enable a specification of the conditions which are likely to lead to greater or lesser partisanship in political institutions in the future.