Borrowing, Consuming, Working: The Economic Impact of Installment Credit on American Households in the Interwar Years

这个项目是为初步研究美国家庭参与信贷市场如何影响他们在支出、储蓄和工作方面的决策而提供的一项计划拨款。重点是分期付款信用的使用，因为分期付款合同的违约会导致所购买商品的财富减少。对两次世界大战期间(当时可获得分期付款信贷)的家庭预算调查进行了分析，以确定分期付款购买与家庭依赖一个以上工薪阶层或非工资收入、家庭工人的职业或工业类别、储蓄率以及偿债与可支配收入比率之间的关系。在大萧条时期，消费在国民生产总值下降中所占的比例不成比例。文献证据表明，负债累累的家庭严重减少了消费支出，以避免分期付款合同违约。这项研究为这一断言提供了目前缺乏的证据。此外，家庭行为的基本模型表明，最近联邦税法的变化鼓励房屋净值高于分期付款债务，可能会影响劳动力参与和家庭支出决定。

This project is a ROW planning grant for an initial study of how American households' participation in credit markets affects their decisions regarding spending, saving, and working. The focus is on use of installment credit since default on installment contracts result in wealth-reducing repossession of the good being purchased. Household budget surveys from the interwar years (when availability of installment credit became widespread) is analyzed to ascertain the correlation between installment buying and household reliance on more than one wage- earner or on non-wage income; occupational or industrial categories of household workers; saving rate; and debt service to disposable income ratios. In the Great Depression, consumption accounted for disproportionate shares of falls in gross national product. Literary evidence asserts indebted households severely reduced consumption spending to avoid defaulting on installment contracts. This study provides now-lacking evidence on this assertion. Further, the underlying model of household behavior indicates how recent federal tax law changes encouraging home- equity over installment debt may affect labor force participation and household spending decisions.